188BET Offer – Arsenal v Barcelona

Arsenal face Barcelona at the Emirates tonight and 188BET are getting in on the action. If Luis Suarez scores for Barcelona against Arsenal, 188BET will refund losing First/Anytime Goalscorer, Correct Score, Double Result and Both Teams to Score bets as a free bet up to a maximum of £50.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a guaranteed profit of £13.84 and here’s how…

Qualifying Bet:

If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.

We need to place our qualifying bet on a Correct Score that sees Arsenal keep a clean sheet. This ensures that if Suarez scores, we will automatically be eligible for a free bet refund as our qualifying bet will have lost. Having looked at the odds available, I’ve opted to place my qualifying bet on a 0-0 draw.

I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges.

We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…

Back Bet (Bookie)

%

Lay Bet (Betting Exchange)

%

Min £
Max £
Lay stake required: £
Bookie
Exchange
Cashback
Total
If back (bookie) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
If lay (exchange) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
Total profit: £

Optimal Underlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

Optimal Overlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £44.49…

188BET logo

Place £50.00 on a 0-0 draw @ 16.00 = Potential profit of £750.00

smarkets whiteLay £44.49 on a 0-0 draw @ 18.00 = Potential liability of £756.40

Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

0-0 draw + £750.00 – £756.40 = £6.40 loss
Not 0-0 draw and Suarez scores – £50.00 + £43.60 + £47.50 (extract 95% from our £50.00 stake refund) = £41.10 profit
Not 0-0 draw and Suarez doesn’t score – £50.00 + £43.60 = £6.40 loss

So, as things stand, if Luis Suarez scores anytime, we will make a nice profit of £41.10. Any other outcome and we’ll lose £6.40.

By placing an extra lay bet on Suarez scoring at Betfair, we can actually guarantee ourselves a profit on any outcome. In order to work out our lay stake, we just need to divide £47.50 (our potential profit + our potential loss) by 2.23 (lay odds – 0.95 (to account for the 5% commission)) which gives us £21.30. …

betfair

Lay £21.30 on Suarez to score @ 2.28 = Potential liability of £27.26

Let’s have a look at our overall profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

0-0 draw – £6.40 + £20.24 = £13.84 profit
Not 0-0 draw and Suarez scores £41.10 – £27.26 = £13.84 profit
Not 0-0 draw and Suarez doesn’t score – £6.40 + £20.24 = £13.84 profit

So, regardless of the result of the game and regardless of whether or not Luis Suarez scores, we will make a guaranteed profit of £13.84 on this 188BET offer.

Stake refunds just need rolling over once at minimum odds of 1.90 or greater before we are able to withdraw. The above calculations are therefore based on the assumption that, by using straightforward matched betting, we should be able to extract 95% cash from our £50.00 stake refund.

To claim our stake refund, we must email the promotion code ‘Suarez50’, our bet ID number and our 188BET member code to promo@188service.com using our registered email address by 22:59 (GMT) on Wednesday 24th February 2016.

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Matt Kirman - Matched Betting Blogger

Matt KirmanMatched Betting Blogger

Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £70,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.