Arsenal head to Barcelona tonight for mission impossible and 188BET are getting in on the action. If Lionel Messi scores any time during Barcelona v Arsenal, 188BET will refund losing First/Anytime Goalscorer, Correct Score, Double Result and Both Teams to Score bets as a free bet, up to a maximum of £50.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £44.64 and here’s how…
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.
Ideally, we would like to place our qualifying bet on a Correct Score that sees Arsenal keep a clean sheet. This would ensure that we are eligible for the refund should Messi find the net as our qualifying bet would have lost. Unfortunately, the lay odds for those selections are too high so we are forced to go for something much shorter.
We need to place our qualifying bet at tight odds, in order to minimise our qualifying loss. It’s entirely up to you, what you place your qualifying bet on, but having looked at the odds available, I’ve opted to place my qualifying bet on both teams to score.
I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges.
We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £48.10…
Place £50.00 on ‘Both Teams to Score – YES’ @ 1.77 = Potential profit of £38.50
Lay £48.10 on ‘Both Teams to Score – YES’ @ 1.86 = Potential liability of £41.36
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
| Both teams score | + £38.50 – £41.36 = £2.86 loss |
| Barcelona keep a clean sheet and Messi scores | – £50.00 + £47.14 + £47.50 (extract 95% from our £50.00 stake refund) = £44.64 profit |
| Someone keeps a clean sheet and Messi doesn’t score | – £50.00 + £47.14 = £2.86 loss |
So, if Barcelona keep a clean sheet and Messi scores, we will make a nice profit of £44.64 on this 188BET offer. If both teams score or Messi fails to find the net, we’ll have made a loss of £2.86. Risking £2.86 to make a profit of £44.64, gives us effective odds of 16.61, so given that the odds of Messi scoring are only 1.60, this is a very profitable offer in the long run.
Stake refunds just need rolling over once at minimum odds of 1.90 or greater before we are able to withdraw. The above calculations are therefore based on the assumption that, by using straightforward matched betting, we should be able to extract 95% cash from our £50.00 stake refund.
To claim our stake refund, we must email the promotion code ‘Messi50’, our bet ID number and our 188BET member code to promo@188service.com using our registered email address by 23:59 (GMT) on Thursday 17th March 2016. Free bets will be credited within 48 hours of a successful claim being submitted.
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.