Celtic host English opposition in the Champions League tonight and you don’t want to miss this 188BET offer! If David Silva scores at any time during Celtic v Manchester City, 188BET will refund losing pre-match First/Anytime Goalscorer, Correct Score and Half Time/Full Time bets as a free bet, up to a maximum of £25.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £20.84 and here’s how…
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.
As with all player-specific promotions, it’s a good idea to wait until the starting line-ups have been announced, before placing our qualifying bets.
Qualifying bets must be placed between 00:01 and 19:30 today (Wednesday 28th September 2016), to be eligible.
Ideally, we need to select a Correct Score that sees Celtic keep a clean sheet. This ensures that if David Silva scores, we will automatically be eligible for a free bet refund as our qualifying bet will have lost. Having looked at the odds available, I’ve opted to keep my qualifying loss to a minimum and place my qualifying bet on 2-1 to Manchester City.
I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges.
We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £22.55…
Place £25.00 on 2-1 Man City @ 9.00 = Potential profit of £200.00
Lay £22.55 on 2-1 Man City @ 10.00 = Potential liability of £202.91
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
2-1 Man City | + £200.00 – £202.91 = £2.91 loss |
Not 2-1 Man City and Silva scores | – £25.00 + £22.09 + £23.75 (extract 95% from our £25.00 stake refund) = £20.84 profit |
Not 2-1 Man City and Silva doesn’t score | – £25.00 + £22.09 = £2.91 loss |
So, if Manchester City don’t win 2-1 and David Silva scores, we will make a nice profit of £20.84. If, however, Manchester City do win 2-1, or Silva doesn’t score, we’ll have made a loss of £2.91. Risking £2.91 to make a profit of £20.84, gives us effective odds of 8.16, so given that the odds of Silva scoring are 2.90, this is a profitable offer in the long run even though we need our 2-1 to Manchester City bet to lose.
Stake refunds just need rolling over once at minimum odds of 1.90 or greater before we are able to withdraw. The above calculations are therefore based on the assumption that, by using straightforward matched betting, we should be able to extract 95% cash from our £25.00 stake refund.
To claim our stake refund, we must email the promotion code ‘DS25’, our bet ID number and our 188BET member code to promo@188service.com using our registered email address by 23:59 (GMT) on Thursday 29th September 2016. Free bets will be credited within 48 hours of a successful claim being submitted and will be valid for 30 days.
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £70,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.