The Champions League and Europa League group stages conclude this week and you don’t want to miss this 188BET offer! Place a pre-match bet on any Champions League or Europa League match this week and if a red card is shown, 188BET will refund all losing 1 X 2, First/Anytime Goalscorer, Correct Score, Half-Time/Full-Time and Both Teams to Score bets on that match, as a free bet, up to a maximum of £25.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £22.00 and here’s how…
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.
This offer is not available to customers that have claimed the 188BET “Bet £10.00, Get £30.00” welcome offer (FREE30).
Qualifying bets must be placed pre-match between 00:01 on Monday 5th December 2016 and 20:00 on Thursday 8th December 2016, to be eligible.
There is no way of making this offer risk-free, so we need to place our qualifying bets at tight odds, in order to minimise our qualifying loss. Only losing bets will be refunded in the event that a red card is shown, so we need to place our qualifying bets on selections that we don’t think will win.
Having looked at the odds available for tonight (Tuesday), I’ve opted to place my qualifying bet on Arsenal drawing with FC Basel, in the ‘1 X 2’ market.
I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges.
We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £24.13…
Place £25.00 on a draw @ 3.60 = Potential profit of £65.00
Lay £24.13 on a draw @ 3.75 = Potential liability of £66.35
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
| Draw | + £65.00 – £66.35 = £1.35 loss |
| Not a draw and a red card is shown | – £25.00 + £23.65 + £23.75 (extract 95% from our £25.00 stake refund) = £22.40 profit |
| Not a draw and a red card isn’t shown | – £25.00 + £23.65 = £1.35 loss |
So, if the game isn’t drawn and a red card is shown, we’ll make a nice profit of £22.40. If, however, the game is drawn or a red card isn’t shown, we’ll have made a loss of £1.35. Risking £1.35 to make a profit of £22.40, gives us effective odds of 17.59, so given that the odds of a red card being shown are 4.50 with most bookmakers, this is a profitable offer in the long run, even though we need either team to win.
We are only eligible to claim one free bet refund, so it’s entirely up to you how many matches you place qualifying bets on. If we hit a refund on Tuesday, we won’t be eligible to claim another refund on Wednesday and Thursday. I’ll be sticking to one match per night and I’ll update the following table with my selection each day…
| Fixture | Selection | Back Odds | Lay Odds | Qualifying Loss | Potential Profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Basel v Arsenal | Draw | 3.60 | 3.75 | £1.35 | £22.40 |
| Lyon v Sevilla | Draw | 3.75 | 3.75 | £0.37 | £23.38 |
| Viktoria Plzen v Austria Wien | Draw | 3.60 | 3.70 | £1.03 | £22.72 |
So, as you can see, we’ll lose around a quid on each bet that doesn’t come off, but with around £22.00 in potential profit up for grabs, this offer is well worth a shot!
Stake refunds just need rolling over once at minimum odds of 1.90 or greater before we are able to withdraw. The above calculations are therefore based on the assumption that, by using straightforward matched betting, we should be able to extract 95% cash from our £25.00 stake refund.
To claim our stake refund, we must email the promotion code ‘CERED’, our bet ID number and our 188BET member code to promo@188service.com using our registered email address by 23:59 (GMT) on Friday 9th December 2016. Free bets will be credited within 48 hours of a successful claim being submitted.
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.