Croatia and Spain will battle it out this evening to see who wins Group D and you don’t want to miss this 188BET offer! If David de Gea keeps a clean sheet for Spain against Croatia, 188BET will refund losing First/Anytime Goalscorer, Correct Score and Half-Time/Full-Time bets as a free bet, up to a maximum of £25.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a guaranteed profit of £7.01 and here’s how…
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.
Qualifying bets must be placed between 00:01 and 19:45 today (Tuesday 21st June 2016), to be eligible.
We need to place our qualifying bet on a Correct Score that sees Croatia scoring. This ensures that if Spain’s goalkeeper, David de Gea, keeps a clean sheet (doesn’t concede), we will automatically be eligible for a refund as our qualifying bet will have lost. Having looked at the odds available, I’ve opted to place my qualifying bet on 1-0 to Croatia.
I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges.
We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £21.56…
Place £25.00 on 1-0 Croatia @ 9.90 = Potential profit of £222.50
Lay £21.56 on 1-0 Croatia @ 11.50 = Potential liability of £226.37
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
| 1-0 Croatia | + £222.50 – £226.37 = £3.87 loss |
| Not 1-0 Croatia and de Gea keeps a clean sheet | – £25.00 + £21.13 + £23.75 (extract 95% from our £25.00 stake refund) = £19.88 profit |
| Not 1-0 Croatia and de Gea doesn’t keep clean sheet | – £25.00 + £21.13 = £3.87 loss |
So, as things stand, if de Gea keeps a clean sheet, we will make a nice profit of £19.88. Any other outcome and we’ll lose £3.87.
By placing an extra lay bet on a Spain clean sheet, we can actually make a guaranteed profit on any outcome. In order to work out our lay stake, we just need to divide £23.75 (the amount we expect to extract from our £25.00 free bet refund) by 2.14 (lay odds minus 0.02 to account for the 2% commission), which gives us £11.10…
Lay £11.10 on ‘Spain Clean Sheet – YES’ @ 2.16 = Potential liability of £12.87
Let’s have a look at our overall profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
| 1-0 Croatia | – £3.87 + £10.88 = £7.01 profit |
| Not 1-0 Croatia and de Gea keeps a clean sheet | £19.88 – £12.87 = £7.01 profit |
| Not 1-0 Croatia and de Gea doesn’t keep clean sheet | – £3.87 + £10.88 = £7.01 profit |
So, regardless of the result of the game, we’ll make a guaranteed profit of £7.01 on this 188BET offer.
Stake refunds just need rolling over once at minimum odds of 1.90 or greater before we are able to withdraw. The above calculations are therefore based on the assumption that, by using straightforward matched betting, we should be able to extract 95% cash from our £25.00 stake refund.
To claim our stake refund, we must email the promotion code ‘degea25’, our bet ID number and our 188BET member code to promo@188service.com using our registered email address by 23:59 (GMT) on Wednesday 22nd June 2016. Free bets will be credited within 48 hours of a successful claim being submitted.
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.