England face Iceland in Nice tonight and you don’t want to miss this 188BET offer! If England lose to Iceland on penalties, 188BET will refund losing pre-match 1 X 2, First/Anytime Goalscorer, Correct Score, Half-Time/Full-Time and Both Teams To Score bets as a free bet, up to a maximum of £25.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £23.41 and here’s how…
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.
Qualifying bets must be placed between 00:01 on Sunday 26th June 2016 and 20:00 (kick-off) on Monday 27th June 2016 to be eligible.
We need to place our qualifying bet on a selection that doesn’t see the game resulting in a draw after 90 minutes. This ensures that if England lose on penalties, we will automatically be eligible for a free bet refund as our qualifying bet will have lost.
Having looked at the odds available, I’ve opted to place my qualifying bet on England to win in the 1 X 2 market.
I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges.
We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £25.16…
Place £25.00 on England @ 1.53 = Potential profit of £13.25
Lay £25.16 on England @ 1.54 = Potential liability of £13.59
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
England win in 90 | + £13.25 – £13.59 = £0.34 loss |
England don’t win in 90 and lose on penalties | – £25.00 + £24.66 + £23.75 (extract 95% from our £25.00 stake refund) = £23.41 profit |
England don’t win in 90 and don’t lose on penalties | – £25.00 + £24.66 = £0.34 loss |
So, if England don’t win in 90 minutes and then lose on penalties, we will make a nice profit of £23.41. If England don’t lose on penalties, we’ll have made a loss of £0.34. Risking £0.34 to make a profit of £23.41, gives us effective odds of 69.85, so given that the odds of England losing on penalties are 13.00 with most bookmakers, this is a profitable offer in the long run.
Stake refunds just need rolling over once at minimum odds of 1.90 or greater before we are able to withdraw. The above calculations are therefore based on the assumption that, by using straightforward matched betting, we should be able to extract 95% cash from our £25.00 stake refund.
To claim our stake refund, we must email the promotion code ‘ENGPEN25’, our bet ID number and our 188BET member code to promo@188service.com using our registered email address by 23:59 (GMT) on Tuesday 28th June 2016. Free bets will be credited within 48 hours of a successful claim being submitted.
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £70,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.