188BET Offer – Leicester City v Man Utd

Man Utd visit the King Power in today’s late kick-off and you don’t want to miss this 188BET offer! If Jamie Vardy scores at any time during Leicester City v Man Utd, 188BET will refund losing pre-match First/Anytime Goalscorer, Correct Score and Half-Time/Full-Time bets as a free bet, up to a maximum of £25.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £21.41 and here’s how…

Qualifying Bet:

If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.

Qualifying bets must be placed between 00:01 on Friday 3rd February 2017 and 16:00 (kick-off) on Sunday 5th February 2017 to be eligible.

Ideally, we should look to place our qualifying bet on a Correct Score that sees Man Utd keeping a clean sheet. If Vardy scores, we would automatically be eligible for a free bet refund as our qualifying bet will have lost.

Having looked at the odds available, I’ve opted to keep my qualifying loss to a minimum by placing my qualifying bet on ‘Draw/Draw’ in the ‘Half-Time/Full-Time’ market.

I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges.

We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…

Back Bet (Bookie)

%

Lay Bet (Betting Exchange)

%

Min £
Max £
Lay stake required: £
Bookie
Exchange
Cashback
Total
If back (bookie) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
If lay (exchange) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
Total profit: £

Optimal Underlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

Optimal Overlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £23.12…

188BET logo

Place £25.00 on Draw/Draw @ 5.90 = Potential profit of £122.50

smarkets whiteLay £23.12 on Draw/Draw @ 6.40 = Potential liability of £124.84

Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

Draw/Draw + £122.50 – £124.84 = £2.34 loss
Not Draw/Draw and Vardy scores – £25.00 + £22.66 + £23.75 (extract 95% from our £25.00 stake refund) = £21.41 profit
Not Draw/Draw and Vardy doesn’t score – £25.00 + £22.66 = £2.34 loss

So, if the match isn’t a draw at both half-time and full-time and Vardy scores, we’ll make a nice profit of £21.41. Any other outcome and we’ll have made a loss of £2.34. Risking £2.34 to make a profit of £21.41, gives us effective odds of 10.15, so given that the odds of Vardy scoring are only 3.60, this is a profitable offer in the long run.

Stake refunds just need rolling over once at minimum odds of 1.90 or greater before we are able to withdraw. The above calculations are therefore based on the assumption that, by using straightforward matched betting, we should be able to extract 95% cash from our £25.00 stake refund.

To claim our stake refund, we must email the promotion code ‘VARDY25’, our bet ID number and our 188BET member code to promo@188bet.co.uk using our registered email address by 23:59 (GMT) on Monday 6th February 2017. Free bets will be credited within 48 hours of a successful claim being submitted.

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Matt Kirman - Matched Betting Blogger

Matt KirmanMatched Betting Blogger

Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £70,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.