188BET Offer – Man Utd v Southampton

Manchester United host Southampton tonight and you don’t want to miss this 188BET offer! If Zlatan Ibrahimovic scores first in Manchester United v Southampton, 188BET will refund losing pre-match First/Anytime Goalscorer, Correct Score and Half Time/Full Time bets as a free bet, up to a maximum of £25.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £21.13 and here’s how…

Qualifying Bet:

If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.

As with all player-specific promotions, it’s a good idea to wait until the starting line-ups have been announced, before placing our qualifying bets.

Qualifying bets must be placed between 00:01 on Thursday 18th August 2016 and 20:00 on Friday 19th August 2016, to be eligible.

Ideally, we need to select a Correct Score that sees Southampton keep a clean sheet. This ensures that if Ibrahimovic scores, we will automatically be eligible for a free bet refund as our qualifying bet will have lost. At the time of writing, there was nothing suitable in the Correct Score market, so I’ve opted to place my qualifying bet on Draw/Man Utd in the Half-Time/Full-Time market.

I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges.

We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…

Back Bet (Bookie)

%

Lay Bet (Betting Exchange)

%

Min £
Max £
Lay stake required: £
Bookie
Exchange
Cashback
Total
If back (bookie) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
If lay (exchange) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
Total profit: £

Optimal Underlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

Optimal Overlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £22.84…

188BET logo

Place £25.00 on Draw/Man Utd @ 4.55 = Potential profit of £88.75

smarkets whiteLay £22.84 on Draw/Man Utd @ 5.00 = Potential liability of £91.37

Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

Draw/Man Utd + £88.75 – £91.37 = £2.62 loss
Not Draw/Man Utd and Ibrahimovic scores first – £25.00 + £22.38 + £23.75 (extract 95% from our £25.00 stake refund) = £21.13 profit
Not Draw/Man Utd and Ibrahimovic doesn’t score first – £25.00 + £22.38 = £2.62 loss

So, if our Draw/Man Utd bet loses and Ibrahimovic scores first, we will make a nice profit of £21.13. If our Draw/Man Utd bet wins or Ibrahimovic doesn’t score first, we’ll have made a loss of £2.62. Risking £2.62 to make a profit of £21.13, gives us effective odds of 9.06, so given that the odds of Ibrahimovic scoring first are 4.30, this is a profitable offer in the long run, even though we need our Draw/Man Utd bet to lose.

Stake refunds just need rolling over once at minimum odds of 1.90 or greater before we are able to withdraw. The above calculations are therefore based on the assumption that, by using straightforward matched betting, we should be able to extract 95% cash from our £25.00 stake refund.

To claim our stake refund, we must email the promotion code ‘ZLAT25’, our bet ID number and our 188BET member code to promo@188service.com using our registered email address by 23:59 (GMT) on Saturday 20th August 2016. Free bets will be credited within 48 hours of a successful claim being submitted.

Got a question?
Leave me a comment below…

I usually respond within 24 hours.

Matt Kirman - Matched Betting Blogger

Matt KirmanMatched Betting Blogger

Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.