The Rio 2016 Men’s Semi-Final Football gets underway this evening and you don’t want to miss this 188BET offer! If a red card is shown in Brazil v Honduras or Nigeria v Germany, 188BET will refund all losing 1 X 2, First/Anytime Goalscorer, Correct Score, Half Time/Full Time markets and Both Teams To Score bets as a free bet, up to a maximum of £50.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £45.46 and here’s how…
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.
Qualifying bets must be placed between 00:01 on Tuesday 16th August 2016 and 20:00 on Wednesday 17th August 2016, to be eligible.
The eligible matches are as follows…
Fixture | Kick-Off | Date |
---|---|---|
Brazil v Honduras | 17:00 | Wednesday 17th August 2016 |
Nigeria v Germany | 20:00 | Wednesday 17th August 2016 |
There is no way of making this offer risk-free, so we need to place our qualifying bet at tight odds, in order to minimise our qualifying loss. Only losing bets will be refunded in the event that a red card is shown, so we need to place our qualifying bet on a selection that we don’t think will win.
We are able to claim one free bet per match so it’s possible to place a qualifying bet on both games. It’s entirely up to you how many games you go for, but I’ll be sticking to the Nigeria v Germany match.
Having looked at the odds available, I’ve opted to place my qualifying bet on a draw.
I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges.
We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £48.94…
Place £50.00 on a draw @ 3.70 = Potential profit of £135.00
Lay £48.94 on a draw @ 3.80 = Potential liability of £137.04
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
Draw | + £135.00 – £137.04 = £2.04 loss |
Not a draw and red card shown | – £50.00 + £47.96 + £47.50 (extract 95% from our £50.00 stake refund) = £45.46 profit |
Not a draw and no red card shown | – £50.00 + £47.96 = £2.04 loss |
So, if the game isn’t a draw and a red card is shown, we will make a nice profit of £45.46. If the game is a draw or there is no red card shown, we’ll have made a loss of £2.04. Risking £2.04 to make a profit of £45.46, gives us effective odds of 23.28, so given the fact that the odds of a red card being shown are 4.333, this is a profitable offer in the long run, even though we need either team to win.
Stake refunds just need rolling over once at minimum odds of 1.90 or greater before we are able to withdraw. The above calculations are therefore based on the assumption that, by using straightforward matched betting, we should be able to extract 95% cash from our £50.00 stake refund.
To claim our stake refund, we must email the promotion code ‘OMRED’, our bet ID number and our 188BET member code to promo@188service.com using our registered email address by 23:59 (GMT) on Thursday 18th August 2016. Free bets will be credited within 48 hours of a successful claim being submitted.
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.