Kick-off time (GMT): 11/01/2017 : 19:45
Southampton host Liverpool in the EFL Cup Semi-Finals tonight and you don’t want to miss this 188BET offer! If a red card is shown at any time during Southampton v Liverpool, 188BET will refund losing pre-match 1×2, First/Anytime Goalscorer, Correct Score, Half-Time/Full-Time and Both Teams To Score bets as a free bet, up to a maximum of £25.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £22.72 and here’s how…
If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.
Qualifying bets must be placed between 00:01 on Tuesday 10th January 2017 and 19:45 (kick-off) on Wednesday 11th January 2017 to be eligible.
There is no way of making this offer risk-free so only get involved if you’re comfortable with your qualifying loss.
Only losing bets will be refunded in the event that a red card is shown, so we need to place our qualifying bet on a selection that we don’t think will win. We also need to place it at tight odds, in order to minimise our qualifying loss.
It’s entirely up to you what you place your qualifying bet on. Having looked at the odds available, I’ve opted to place my qualifying bet on Southampton in the ‘1 X 2’ market.
I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges.
We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £24.46…
Place £25.00 on Southampton @ 3.60 = Potential profit of £65.00
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
|Southampton win||+ £65.00 – £66.03 = £1.03 loss|
|Southampton don't win and a red card is shown||- £25.00 + £23.97 + £23.75 (extract 95% from our £25.00 stake refund) = £22.72 profit|
|Southampton don't win and no red card is shown||- £25.00 + £23.97 = £1.03 loss|
So, if Southampton don’t win and a red card is shown, we’ll make a nice profit of £22.72. Any other outcome and we’ll have made a loss of £1.03. Risking £1.03 to make a profit of £22.72, gives us effective odds of 23.06, so given that the odds of a red card being shown are only 4.50, this is a profitable offer in the long run, even though we need Southampton not to win.
Stake refunds just need rolling over once at minimum odds of 1.90 or greater before we are able to withdraw. The above calculations are therefore based on the assumption that, by using straightforward matched betting, we should be able to extract 95% cash from our £25.00 stake refund.
To claim our stake refund, we must email the promotion code ‘SL25’, our bet ID number and our 188BET member code to firstname.lastname@example.org using our registered email address by 23:59 (GMT) on Thursday 12th January 2017. Free bets will be credited within 48 hours of a successful claim being submitted.