188BET Offer – Ukraine v Poland

Poland may well need goals against Ukraine today if they’re to finish top of Group C and you don’t want to miss this 188BET offer! If Robert Lewandowski scores first in Ukraine v Poland, 188BET will refund losing pre-match 1 X 2, First/Anytime Goalscorer, Correct Score, Half-Time/Full-Time and Both Teams To Score bets as a free bet, up to a maximum of £25.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £21.42 and here’s how…

Qualifying Bet:

If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.

Qualifying bets must be placed before 16:45 on Tuesday 21st June 2016 to be eligible.

Ideally, we need to select a Correct Score that sees Ukraine keep a clean sheet. This ensures that if Polish striker, Robert Lewandowski, scores first, we will automatically be eligible for a free bet refund as our qualifying bet will have lost.

As this offer includes 1 X 2 bets though, I’ve opted to keep my qualifying loss to a minimum by placing my qualifying bet on Ukraine to win (1 X 2 market). If Lewandowski scores the first goal of the game, whilst it’s not impossible, it’s unlikely Ukraine will come back to win the match.

I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges.

We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…

Back Bet (Bookie)

%

Lay Bet (Betting Exchange)

%

Min £
Max £
Lay stake required: £
Bookie
Exchange
Cashback
Total
If back (bookie) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
If lay (exchange) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
Total profit: £

Optimal Underlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

Optimal Overlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £23.13…

188BET logo

Place £25.00 on Ukraine @ 4.70 = Potential profit of £92.50

smarkets whiteLay £23.13 on Ukraine @ 5.10 = Potential liability of £94.83

Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

Ukraine win + £92.50 – £94.83 = £2.33 loss
Ukraine don’t win and Lewandowski scores first – £25.00 + £22.67 + £23.75 (extract 95% from our £25.00 stake refund) = £21.42 profit
Ukraine don’t win and Lewandowski doesn’t score first – £25.00 + £22.67 = £2.33 loss

So, if Ukraine don’t win and Lewandowski scores the first goal of the game, we will make a nice profit of £21.42. If Ukraine do win or Lewandowski doesn’t score the first goal of the game, we’ll have made a loss of £2.33. Risking £2.33 to make a profit of £21.42, gives us effective odds of 10.13, so given that the odds of Lewandowski scoring first are 4.50, this is a profitable offer in the long run.

Stake refunds just need rolling over once at minimum odds of 1.90 or greater before we are able to withdraw. The above calculations are therefore based on the assumption that, by using straightforward matched betting, we should be able to extract 95% cash from our £25.00 stake refund.

To claim our stake refund, we must email the promotion code ‘robert25’, our bet ID number and our 188BET member code to promo@188service.com using our registered email address by 23:59 (GMT) on Wednesday 22nd June 2016. Free bets will be credited within 48 hours of a successful claim being submitted.

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Matt Kirman - Matched Betting Blogger

Matt KirmanMatched Betting Blogger

Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.