Bet365 Offer – Euro 2016 Penalty Payback

Euro 2016 is here and you do not want to miss this Bet365 offer! Place a bet on the To Win Outright market for Euro 2016 and if the team we back is eliminated on penalties, Bet365 will refund our losing bet in cash! Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £96.81 and here’s how…

Qualifying Bet:

If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.

This offer is available until the Euro 2016 Final kicks off at 20:00 on Sunday 10th July 2016.

There is no maximum stake for this offer, so it’s entirely up to you how much you stake. Our stake amount will depend on how much cash we are willing to tie up in our Smarkets account and also how big a qualifying loss we are comfortable with.

Having looked at the odds available, I’ve opted to place £100.00 on Spain.

We are able to back as many teams as we like for this offer. Each team we bet on, will be eligible for a refund. It’s worth pointing out that when we lay more than one team from the Outright Winner market, we will only need to cover the team that gives us the largest liability. This is because only one team can win the tournament and so that is the maximum amount we stand to lose from our Smarkets account. Also, if one of our selections wins the tournament, we will not pay quite as much commission as we only pay commission on net profits.

Once the knockout stages get underway, we should have the opportunity to lay our team losing on penalties in order to lock in a profit, should we wish to do so.

I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges.

You can find the Euro 2016 outright market by entering ‘Euro 2016’ in the search box at the top of the homepage or by using the following link trail…

Smarkets > Football > Outright > Euro 2016

We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…

Back Bet (Bookie)

%

Lay Bet (Betting Exchange)

%

Min £
Max £
Lay stake required: £
Bookie
Exchange
Cashback
Total
If back (bookie) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
If lay (exchange) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
Total profit: £

Optimal Underlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

Optimal Overlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £98.78…

bet365 logo

Place £100.00 on Spain @ 6.50 = Potential profit of £550.00

smarkets whiteLay £98.78 on Spain @ 6.60 = Potential liability of £553.19

Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

Spain win + £550.00 – £553.19 = £3.19 loss
Spain lose on penalties – £100.00 + £96.81 + £100.00 = £96.81 profit
Spain knocked out by other means – £100.00 + £96.81 = £3.19 loss

So, if Spain get knocked out of Euro 2016 on penalties, we will make a huge profit of £96.81. If Spain win Euro 2016 or get knocked out by any method other than penalties, we’ll have made a small loss of £3.19. Risking £3.19 to make a profit of £96.81, gives us effective odds of 31.35, so given that the odds of Spain getting knocked out of Euro 2016 on penalties are 4.50, this is a very profitable offer in the long run.

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Matt Kirman - Matched Betting Blogger

Matt KirmanMatched Betting Blogger

Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.