It’s Betfair free bet time again! Place a pre-match Sportsbook Correct Score, Scorecast, First, Last or Anytime Goalscorer market bet on Argentina v Belgium and get a full refund as a free bet token if it goes to Extra Time, up to a maximum of £25.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential risk-free profit of £4.92 and here’s how…
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walkthrough guide on how to place your qualifying bets.
I always stick to the correct score markets for these types of offers and for this particular offer, we need to select a correct score that isn’t a draw. This ensures that we qualify for the free bet in the event that the match goes into extra-time as our qualifying bet will have lost. Having looked at the odds on offer, I’ve opted to place my qualifying bet on 1-0 Argentina.
Place £25.00 on 1-0 Argentina @ 7.00 = Potential profit of £150.00
Lay £22.01 on 1-0 Argentina @ 8.00 = Potential liability of £154.07
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the various outcomes…
1-0 Argentina |
+£150.00 – £154.07 = £4.07 loss |
Extra-time |
-£25.00 + £20.91 + £20.00 (Assumes an 80% return from our £25.00 free bet) = £15.91 profit |
Not 1-0 Argentina or extra-time |
-£25.00 + £20.91 = £4.09 loss |
If you’re not sure how to extract 80% of our £25.00 free bet, please see my Free Bet Strategy page for a walkthrough guide on how it should be done.
So as things stand we will make £15.91 profit if the match goes into extra-time. Unfortunately, if the match isn’t level after 90 minutes, we stand to lose a maximum of £4.09 and so we need to insure ourselves against this by laying the draw at the betting exchange.
To calculate our lay stake, we need to divide the £4.09 by 0.95 to allow for the 5% commission. This gives us a lay stake of £4.31.
Let’s have a look at our overall profit/loss for the three outcomes…
1-0 Argentina |
-£4.07 + £4.09 = £0.02 profit |
Extra-time |
£15.91 – £10.99 = £4.92 profit |
Not 1-0 Argentina or extra-time |
-£4.09 + £4.09 = £0.00 |
So if the match isn’t level after 90 minutes, we will break even and there’s no harm done. However, if the game does go into extra-time, we will make a nice risk-free profit of £4.92!
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.