It’s Betfair free bet time again! If your selected refund trigger occurs in the game (90 minutes plus injury time) Betfair will refund our first bet, should it lose, from pre-match Correct Score, Anytime Correct Score, First, Last or Anytime Goalscorer as a free bet up to a maximum of £25.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £5.74 and here’s how…
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walkthrough guide on how to place your qualifying bets.
Arsenal are slight favourites to beat Liverpool and so I’ve selected them as my refund trigger. You have the option to select either a Liverpool win, a draw or an Arsenal win. In terms of my qualifying bet, I’m going to stick to the correct score market. I find the liquidity at the betting exchange is far better than goalscorer markets and I just feel more comfortable here. We need to select a scoreline that isn’t an Arsenal win. This ensures that if Arsenal beat Liverpool, we will automatically be eligible for a free bet refund as our qualifying bet will have lost. Having looked at the odds available, I’ve opted for a 0-0 draw.
Place £25.00 on 0-0 draw @ 15.00 = Potential profit of £350.00
Lay £20.89 on 0-0 draw @ 18.00 = Potential liability of £355.13
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the three outcomes…
|
0-0 draw |
+£350.00 – £355.13 = £5.13 loss |
|
Not 0-0 and Arsenal win |
-£25.00 + £19.85 + £20.00 (Assumes an 80% return from our £25.00 free bet) = £14.85 profit |
|
Not 0-0 and Arsenal don’t win |
-£25.00 + £19.85 = £5.15 loss |
If you’re not sure how to extract 80% of our £25.00 free bet, please see my Free Bet Strategy page for a walkthrough guide on how it should be done.
So we will make £14.85 profit if Arsenal win. Unfortunately, we also stand to lose a maximum of £5.15 on any other result and so we need to insure ourselves against this by laying Arsenal at Betfair. We need to divide £5.15 by 0.95 in order to factor in the 5% commission. This gives us a lay stake of £5.42.
Lay £5.42 on Arsenal @ 2.68 = Potential liability of £9.11
Let’s have a look at our resulting potential profit/loss for the following outcomes…
|
0-0 draw |
-£5.13 + £5.15 = £0.02 profit |
|
Not 0-0 and Arsenal win |
£14.85 – £9.11 = £5.74 profit |
|
Not 0-0 and Arsenal don’t win |
-£5.15 + £5.15 = £0.00 |
So if Arsenal win, we will make a nice risk-free profit of £5.74! If the game isn’t won by Arsenal, we will break even and there’s no harm done. If you’re not sure how to extract 80% of the £25.00 free bet refund, please see my Free Bet Strategy page for a walkthrough guide on how it should be done.
More reload offers – Make £300+ per month
With detailed walkthroughs for all the best offers as they’re released, you’ll be bagging recurring profits in no time.
More reload offers
Got a question?
Leave me a comment below…
I usually respond within 24 hours.
Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.