It’s Betfair free bet time again! If your selected refund trigger occurs in the game (90 minutes plus injury time) Betfair will refund our first bet, should it lose, from pre-match MATCH ODDS, Correct Score, Anytime Correct Score, First, Last or Anytime Goalscorer as a free bet up to a maximum of £25.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £12.59 and here’s how…
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walkthrough guide on how to place your qualifying bets.
We need to place our qualifying bet on the match odds market as this is where we will find the best odds for matching, which will keep our qualifying loss at a minimum. Manchester United are clear favourites to beat Liverpool and so I’ve selected them as my refund trigger. You have the option to select either a Manchester United win, a draw or a Liverpool win. When selecting which result to place your qualifying bet on, make sure you haven’t already laid that selection at Betfair whilst doing another offer as this will make you ineligible for a free bet. I’ve already laid Manchester United and the draw whilst doing other offers so I can only place my qualifying bet on Liverpool.
Place £25.00 on Liverpool @ 4.40 = Potential profit of £85.00
Lay £22.22 on Liverpool @ 5.00 = Potential liability of £88.88
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the three outcomes…
Liverpool win |
+£85.00 – £88.88 = £3.88 loss |
Man United win |
-£25.00 + £21.11 + £20.00 (Assumes an 80% return from our £25.00 free bet) = £16.11 profit |
Draw |
-£25.00 + £21.11 = £3.89 loss |
If you’re not sure how to extract 80% of our £25.00 free bet, please see my Free Bet Strategy page for a walkthrough guide on how it should be done.
So we will make £16.11 profit if Manchester United win. Unfortunately, we also stand to lose a maximum of £3.89 on any other result and so we need to insure ourselves against this by laying Manchester United at Betfair. We need to divide £3.89 by 0.95 in order to factor in the 5% commission. This gives us a lay stake of £4.09.
Let’s have a look at our resulting potential profit/loss for the following outcomes…
Liverpool win |
£3.88 + £3.89 = £0.01 profit |
Man United win |
£16.11 – £3.52 = £12.59 profit |
Draw |
-£3.89 + £3.89 = £0.00 |
So if Manchester United win, we will make a nice profit of £12.59! If the game isn’t won by United, we will break even and there’s no harm done. If you’re not sure how to extract 80% of the £25.00 free bet refund, please see my Free Bet Strategy page for a walkthrough guide on how it should be done.
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £70,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.