The Euro 2016 Round of 16 gets underway today and you don’t want to miss this Betfair Sportsbook offer. Place a pre-match single bet on the First/Last/Anytime Goal Scorer markets for any of the Round of 16 matches, and if our winning selection scores again, Betfair will treble our winnings. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £565.76 and here’s how…
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.
In order to be eligible for this offer, our £10.00 (max.) qualifying bet must be placed pre-match on either the First, Last or Anytime Goalscorer markets. If our selection wins and then scores again, Betfair will treble our odds. Winnings will be paid in cash at the normal price and then topped up to triple odds with free bets. So, for example, if we place £10.00 on a winning Goal Scorer at odds of 6.00 (5/1), we would receive £60.00 in cash and £100.00 in free bets, if he scores again. Extra time does count for this promotion, but goals scored in a penalty shootout do not.
It’s best that we place our qualifying bets on the First Goalscorer market as this gives us the best effective odds.
At the time of writing, the lay odds are pretty poor, so I’ll use fictional odds in the following example and I’ll update the bottom of this post with my actual selections after the matches have been played.
I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges.
We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £8.90…
Place £10.00 on Vardy to score first @ 5.50 = Potential profit of £45.00
Lay £8.90 on Vardy to score first @ 6.20 = Potential liability of £46.28
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
| Vardy scores first and then doesn’t score again | + £45.00 – £46.28 = £1.28 loss |
| Vardy scores first and then scores again anytime | + £45.00 – £46.28 + £72.00 (80% extracted from £90.00 free bet) = £70.72 profit |
| Vardy doesn’t score first | – £10.00 + £8.72 = £1.28 loss |
So, if Jamie Vardy scores first and then scores again anytime, we’ll make a nice profit of £70.72 on this Betfair offer! If he scores first and then doesn’t score again, or if he fails to score first, we’ll have made a small loss of £1.28. Risking £1.28 to make £70.72 profit, gives us effective odds of 56.25, so given that the odds on Jamie Vardy scoring two or more goals are 7.00, I’m sure you’ll agree, this is a very profitable offer in the long run.
This offer is available on all 8 Round of 16 matches, giving us a potential profit of £565.76!
Free bets will be credited within 12 hours of each match ending and will be valid for 48 hours. Free bet stakes are not returned with any winnings.
If you’re unsure how to extract 80% of any free bet, check out my Free Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.
I’ll update the following table with my actual selections after the matches have been played…
| Fixture | Selection | Back Odds | Lay Odds | Profit/Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Switzerland v Poland | Lewandowski | 5.50 | 6.40 | -£1.44 |
| Wales v Northern Ireland | Bale | 4.20 | 4.70 | -£1.21 |
| Croatia v Portugal | Ronaldo | 5.00 | 5.10 | -£0.35 |
| France v Republic of Ireland | Giroud | 5.50 | 6.00 | -£0.99 |
| Germany v Slovakia | Gomez | 6.00 | 6.00 | -£0.17 |
| Hungary v Belgium | Lukaku | 5.00 | 5.70 | -£1.37 |
| Italy v Spain | Morata | 6.00 | 7.20 | -£1.81 |
| England v Iceland | Kane | 6.00 | 6.20 | -£0.49 |
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.