To celebrate a full weekend of FA Cup 4th Round action, Betfair are offering to double our winnings on our Correct Score bets. Place a pre-match correct score bet on any of the five selected matches and if our bet wins, Betfair will double our profit if the match is a draw at half-time. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a low risk chance of making some big profits and here’s how…
Qualifying Bets:
This is a new offering from Betfair and having crunched the numbers, there are big potential profits to be made for a small risk.
The eligible matches are those specified in the promotional banner above.
If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.
In order to be eligible for this offer, our £10.00 (max.) qualifying bets must be placed pre-match on the Correct Score market of the selected games. Only our first cash bet on the market will qualify. If the teams are drawing at half-time and our Correct Score bet goes on to win, Betfair will double our profit by paying the extra winnings as free bets. So, for example, if we place £10.00 on a winning Correct Score at odds of 6.00 (5/1), we would receive £60.00 in cash and £50.00 in free bets if the teams had been drawing at half-time.
We already know that by using straightforward matched betting, we can extract 80% cash from any free bet.
Having looked at the odds available, I’ve opted to place my Derby County v Manchester United qualifying bet on a 2-1 Manchester United win.
I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission. It’s also a very bad idea to place back bets on the Betfair Sportsbook and then lay them off on the Betfair Exchange for obvious reasons.
We can calculate our lay stakes using my matched betting calculator…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £8.65…
Place £10.00 on 2-1 Man Utd @ 9.50 = Potential profit of £85.00
Lay £8.65 on 2-1 Man Utd @ 11.00 = Potential liability of £86.52
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
| Man Utd win 2-1 and not drawing at half-time | + £85.00 – £86.52 = £1.52 loss |
| Man Utd win 2-1 after drawing at half-time | + £85.00 – £86.52 + £68.00 (extracted from £85.00 free bet) = £66.48 profit |
| Man Utd don’t win 2-1 | – £10.00 + £8.48 (£8.65 minus 2% commission) = £1.52 loss |
So if Man Utd win 2-1, having been level at half-time, we will make a rather nice profit of £66.48. Any other outcome and we’ll have lost £1.52. Risking £1.52 to win £66.48, gives us effective odds of 44.74, so given the fact that the odds of Man Utd winning 2-1 are only 9.50, this is a very profitable offer over time. Of course, the half-time score has to be a draw but with a final score of 2-1, there’s every chance the scores could be level at halfway.
This offer is available on all five specified matches and it’s entirely up to you which Correct Scores you go for. We’ll need to wait until nearer the matches to get our lay odds at Smarkets, but using Betfair as a guide, this is how things may pan out…
| Selection | Back Odds | Lay Odds | Qualifying Loss | Potential Profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derby 1-2 Man Utd | 9.50 | 11.00 | £1.52 | £66.48 |
| Colchester 1-2 Tottenham | 8.50 | 10.50 | £2.05 | £57.95 |
| Liverpool 2-1 West Ham | 9.00 | 10.50 | £1.58 | £62.42 |
| Carlisle 1-2 Everton | 8.00 | 10.50 | £2.52 | £53.48 |
| MK Dons 1-2 Chelsea | 9.00 | 11.00 | £1.97 | £62.03 |
So as you can see, we’ll lose £9.64 if we don’t hit any winners but with £302.36 in potential profit up for grabs, this offer is well worth a shot! We may be able to minimise our qualifying losses even further once the odds have tightened up so I’ll update the bottom of this post with my actual selections after the games have been played.
Free bets will be credited within 12 hours of each match ending and if you’re unsure how to extract 80% of any free bet, check out my Free Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.