Liverpool host Manchester United in the Europa League tonight and BetVictor are getting in on the action. If a red card is shown at any time during Liverpool v Manchester United, BetVictor will refund losing First/Last Goalscorer, Correct Score and Scorecast single bets as a bonus, up to a maximum of £25.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £18.24 and here’s how…
Qualifying Bet:
To be eligible for this offer, we need to opt in via the “Bonus and Promotions” page within “My account”.
If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.
Qualifying bets must be placed pre-match at minimum odds of 2.00 or greater to be eligible.
There is no way of making this offer risk-free, so we need to place our qualifying bet at tight odds, in order to minimise our qualifying loss. Having looked at the odds available, I’ve opted to place my qualifying bet on a 1-1 draw.
I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges.
We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £23.71…
Place £25.00 on a 1-1 draw @ 7.00 = Potential profit of £150.00
Lay £23.71 on a 1-1 draw @ 7.40 = Potential liability of £151.76
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
| 1-1 draw | + £150.00 – £151.76 = £1.76 loss |
| Not a 1-1 draw and there’s a red card | – £25.00 + £23.24 + £20.00 (extract 80% from our £25.00 stake refund) = £18.24 profit |
| Not a 1-1 draw and there’s no red card | – £25.00 + £23.24 = £1.76 loss |
So, if the game doesn’t finish 1-1 and there’s a red card shown, we will make a nice profit of £18.24 on this BetVictor offer. If there’s no red card or the game is drawn 1-1, we’ll have made a loss of £1.76. Risking £1.76 to make a profit of £18.24, gives us effective odds of 11.36, so given that the odds of a red card being shown are only 3.50, this is a very profitable offer in the long run.
If we are due a bonus, it will be credited shortly after our qualifying bet has settled and must be used on football markets. If unused, the bonus will expire at midnight on Sunday 13th March 2016.
We will only be eligible to withdraw winnings accrued through the use of our bonus funds once we have placed real cash sports bets with a total stake of at least 4 times the value of our initial bonus bet and these bets have fully settled. So, if we bet our £25.00 bonus and it wins, we will need to place further settled bet(s) with a cumulative stake of £100.00 before we will be permitted to make a withdrawal of any winnings accrued through the use of our bonus funds. It’s more than likely that our bonus bet will lose, but if it wins, it will probably cost us £2.50 or so to rollover.
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.