It’s the North London derby this weekend at The Emirates and Betway are getting in on the action. Place a goalscorer bet on Arsenal v Tottenham and if both teams score, Betway will refund losing bets as a free bet up to a maximum of £25.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £9.69 and here’s how…
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.
We need to place our qualifying goalscorer bet on ‘No Goalscorer’. This ensures that if both teams score, we will automatically qualify for a free bet refund as our qualifying bet will have lost.
I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges. We can calculate our lay stakes using the matched betting calculator.
Place £25.00 on ‘No Goalscorer’ @ 15.00 = Potential profit of £350.00
Lay £19.76 on 0-0 draw @ 19.00 = Potential liability of £355.64
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the three outcomes…
| 0-0 draw | +£350.00 – £355.64 = £5.64 loss |
| Not 0-0 draw and both teams score | -£25.00 + £19.36 + £20.00 (extract 80% from our £25.00 free bet) = £14.36 profit |
| Not 0-0 draw and someone keeps a clean sheet | -£25.00 + £19.36 = £5.64 loss |
As things stand, if both teams score, we will make a profit of £14.36, but we’ll lose £5.64 on any other outcome. By placing another lay bet on both teams scoring, we can make this offer risk-free. To work out our lay stake, we need to divide £5.64 by 0.98 (to account for the 2% commission charged by Smarkets), which gives us £5.76.
Lay £5.76 on Both Teams to Score @ 1.81 = Potential liability of £4.67
Let’s have a look at our overall profit/loss for the three outcomes…
| 0-0 draw | -£5.64 + £5.64 = £0.00 |
| Not 0-0 draw and both teams score | £14.36 – £4.67 = £9.69 profit |
| Not 0-0 draw and someone keeps a clean sheet | -£5.64 + £5.64 = £0.00 |
So if someone keeps a clean sheet, we’ll have broken even and there’s no harm done. If, however, both teams score, we’ll have made a profit of £9.69 on this offer.
If you’re unsure how to extract 80% of our £25.00 free bet, check out my Free Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.