The Champions League Final 2016 takes place at the San Siro tonight and Bwin are getting in on the action. Simply place a bet on Real Madrid v Atletico Madrid and if our bet is a winner, Bwin will add 25% extra to our winnings, if both teams score in the match. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £18.53 and here’s how…
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.
Qualifying bets can be placed on any pre-match market to be eligible.
The 25% extra winnings will be credited in the form of a free bet and the maximum free bet amount we can receive is £25.00. We therefore need to win £100.00 in order to receive the full £25.00 free bet.
I considered placing my qualifying bet on both teams scoring. This would ensure that if both teams score, we would automatically be eligible for a free bet as our qualifying bet would have won. Unfortunately, at the time of writing, the odds weren’t tight enough to be able to lock in a profit.
Having looked at the other odds available, I’ve decided to place my qualifying bet on a draw at back odds of 3.10. In order to work out how much we need to stake, we just need to divide £100.00 by 2.10 (back odds minus 1), which equals £47.62. I’ve decided to round the stake up to £50.00 as an odd amount such as £47.62 may look a little suspect!
I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges.
We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £49.52…
Place £50.00 on a draw @ 3.10 = Potential profit of £105.00
Lay £49.52 on a draw @ 3.15 = Potential liability of £106.47
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
| 0-0 draw | + £105.00 – £106.47 = £1.47 loss |
| Score draw | + £105.00 – £106.47 + £20.00 (extract 80% of £25.00 free bet) = £18.53 profit |
| Not a draw | – £50.00 + £48.53 = £1.47 loss |
So, if the game is a score draw (draw with both teams scoring), we will make a nice profit of £18.53 on this Bwin offer. If the game is not a draw or is drawn 0-0, we’ll have made a loss of £1.47. Risking £1.47 to make a profit of £18.53, gives us effective odds of 13.61, so given that the odds of a score draw are 13.60, this is a profitable offer in the long run.
Free bets will be credited by 18:00 on Sunday 29th May 2016 and will be valid for 3 days. If you’re unsure how to extract 80% cash from our £25.00 free bet, please see my free bet strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.