Chelsea vs Liverpool Paddy Power Money-Back Special

This is another great offer from Paddy Power.  If the match ends as a draw, Paddy Power will refund all losing First Goalscorer, Last Goalscorer, Correct Score and Scorecast singles on the match, up to a maximum of £100.  Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of over £28.00!  And here’s how…

Whenever I do these sort of money-back offers, I always stick to the correct score market.  I find the liquidity at the betting exchange is far better than goalscorer markets and I just feel more comfortable here.

We will need to select a correct score that isn’t a draw and I will explain why later.  With that in mind and having looked at the odds on offer, I’ve opted for a 2-1 Chelsea win.

Step 1:

Step 2:

Let’s have a look at our current potential profit/loss for the following outcomes…

So as things stand we will win £81.16 if the game ends as a draw! Unfortunately we also stand to lose just under £19.00 if the game doesn’t end in a draw and so we need to insure ourselves against this by laying the draw at Betfair.  If we had selected a correct score that was a draw such as 0-0 or 1-1, it would make the next step a lot more complicated.

Step 3:

As £18.87 is the maximum we stand to lose, we need to work out our draw lay stake by taking commission into consideration.  £18.87 / 0.95 = £19.86.

Now let’s have a look at our overall potential profit/loss for the following outcomes…

So, if the game isn’t drawn we break even, but if the game is drawn we make £28.53 profit for very little work!