Chelsea face Liverpool at the Bridge on Saturday in what feels like a must win game for Jose Mourinho and Ladbrokes are getting in on the action. If both teams score in Chelsea v Liverpool, Ladbrokes will refund losing Match Result (WDW), First Goalscorer, Half Time/Full Time and Correct Score bets as a free bet up to a maximum of £25.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £18.08 and here’s how…
Qualifying bet
If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.
There are a couple of different ways we can do this offer. If you’ve been following my blog over the last couple of weeks, you’ll know that I usually like to bank a guaranteed profit of just under £5.00 on these Ladbrokes offers. I’ve received a few comments about this strategy and it seems the majority of people like to place a straightforward back and lay on the match result market and let it run. Whichever method you opt for, the long-term profit should work out to be about the same, but I’ve decided to go with the majority this week. I’ve opted to place my qualifying bet on Liverpool to win, as this has the best chance of losing given the current odds.
I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges. We can calculate our lay stakes using the matched betting calculator.
Place £25.00 on Liverpool @ 3.75 = Potential profit of £68.75
Lay £23.56 on Liverpool @ 4.00 = Potential liability of £70.67
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the three outcomes…
| Liverpool win and both teams score | +£68.75 – £70.67 = £1.92 loss |
| Liverpool win and keep a clean sheet | +£68.75 – £70.67 = £1.92 loss |
| Liverpool don’t win and both teams score | -£25.00 + £23.08 + £20.00 (extract 80% from our £25.00 free bet) = £18.08 profit |
| Liverpool don’t win and someone keeps a clean sheet | -£25.00 + £23.08 = £1.92 loss |
So if Liverpool don’t win and both teams score, we will make a profit of £18.08. Any other outcome and we’ll lose £1.92. Risking £1.92 to make £18.08 profit gives us effective odds of 10.42, so the fact that the odds of both teams scoring are currently 1.83, makes this a profitable offer in the long run.
If you’re unsure how to extract 80% of our £25.00 free bet, check out my Free Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.