It’s the FA Cup 3rd Round and you don’t want to miss this Ladbrokes offer! Back a team from a lower league to win against higher division opponents in any FA Cup 3rd Round match and if the game ends in a draw, Ladbrokes will refund our stake as a free bet, up to £25.00, to back the same team to win the replay. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us an overall potential profit of £70.00+ and here’s how…
Qualifying Bets:
This weekend’s eligible matches, with the underdogs in bold, are as follows…
| Fixture | Kick-Off | Date |
|---|---|---|
| Man Utd v Reading | 12:30 | Saturday 7th January 2017 |
| Barrow v Rochdale | 15:00 | Saturday 7th January 2017 |
| Blackpool v Barnsley | 15:00 | Saturday 7th January 2017 |
| Bolton v Crystal Palace | 15:00 | Saturday 7th January 2017 |
| Brentford v Eastleigh | 15:00 | Saturday 7th January 2017 |
| Brighton v MK Dons | 15:00 | Saturday 7th January 2017 |
| Bristol City v Fleetwood | 15:00 | Saturday 7th January 2017 |
| Huddersfield v Port Vale | 15:00 | Saturday 7th January 2017 |
| Ipswich v Lincoln | 15:00 | Saturday 7th January 2017 |
| Milwall v Bournemouth | 15:00 | Saturday 7th January 2017 |
| Norwich v Southampton | 15:00 | Saturday 7th January 2017 |
| Rotherham v Oxford | 15:00 | Saturday 7th January 2017 |
| Stoke v Wolves | 15:00 | Saturday 7th January 2017 |
| Sutton v Wimbledon | 15:00 | Saturday 7th January 2017 |
| Watford v Burton | 15:00 | Saturday 7th January 2017 |
| West Brom v Derby | 15:00 | Saturday 7th January 2017 |
| Wycombe v Stourbridge | 15:00 | Saturday 7th January 2017 |
| Preston v Arsenal | 17:30 | Saturday 7th January 2017 |
| Liverpool v Plymouth | 13:30 | Sunday 8th January 2017 |
| Chelsea v Peterborough | 15:00 | Sunday 8th January 2017 |
| Middlesbrough v Sheff Wed | 15:00 | Sunday 8th January 2017 |
| Spurs v Aston Villa | 16:00 | Sunday 8th January 2017 |
| Cambridge v Leeds | 19:45 | Monday 9th January 2017 |
If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.
This offer applies to any bets placed on underdogs (90 minute Match Result market) from 08:00 on Wednesday 4th January 2017 until kick-off in the respective match.
If our selected underdog manages to draw against their higher division opponents, Ladbrokes will refund our stake as a free bet (up to £25.00) to bet on the underdog winning the replay.
The underdogs should be long odds to win any replays, so extracting 70% cash from our free bet shouldn’t be too much of an issue.
It’s entirely up to you how many underdogs you bet on, but I’ll be sticking to four or five.
At the time of writing the lay odds are pretty poor, so I’ll use fictional odds in the following example and I’ll update the table at the bottom of the post with my actual selections after the matches have been played.
I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges.
We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £23.87…
Place £25.00 on Barrow @ 3.80 = Potential profit of £70.00
Lay £23.87 on Barrow @ 4.00 = Potential liability of £71.61
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
| Barrow win | + £70.00 – £71.61 = £1.61 loss |
| Draw | – £25.00 + £23.39 + £17.50 (extract 70% from £25.00 free bet) = £15.89 profit |
| Rochdale win | – £25.00 + £23.39 (£23.87 minus 2% commission) = £1.61 loss |
So, if Barrow (underdogs) earn a draw, we’ll make a nice profit of £15.89. Any other outcome and we’ll have made a loss of £1.61. Risking £1.61 to make a profit of £15.89, gives us effective odds of 10.87. Given that the odds are 3.60 for the game to be drawn, this is a profitable offer in the long run.
This offer is available on all fixtures shown at the top of the post. It’s entirely up to you which underdogs you go for. I’ll update the following table with my selections throughout the weekend…
| Fixture | Back Odds | Lay Odds | Qualifying Loss | Potential Profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bolton v Crystal Palace | 3.10 | 3.40 | £2.53 | £14.97 |
| Norwich v Southampton | 3.10 | 3.30 | £1.84 | £15.66 |
| Rotherham v Oxford | 2.875 | 3.10 | £2.13 | £15.37 |
| Cambridge v Leeds | 4.00 | 4.40 | £2.63 | £14.87 |
So, we’ll lose £1.50-£3.00 on each underdog that doesn’t earn a draw, but with £14.00+ profit available on each match, this offer is well worth a go.
If you’re not sure how to extract 70% cash from a free bet, please see my Free Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.