Kick-off time (GMT): 15/01/2017 : 16:00
Man Utd host Liverpool on Sunday and you don’t want to miss this Ladbrokes offer! Simply place a bet on Man Utd v Liverpool and if the game is a draw, Ladbrokes will refund losing Correct Score, First Goalscorer and Half-Time/Full-Time bets as a free bet, up to £25.00 per market. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a risk-free potential profit of £11.62 and here’s how…
If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.
Qualifying bets must be placed between 08:00 on Wednesday 11th January 2017 and 16:00 (kick-off) on Sunday 15th January 2017, to be eligible.
We need to place our qualifying bet on a Correct Score or Half-Time/Full-Time selection that doesn’t see the match being drawn. This ensures that if the match is drawn, we’ll automatically be eligible for a free bet refund as our qualifying bet will have lost.
It’s entirely up to you what you place your qualifying bet on. At the time of writing, the lay odds are poor, so I’ll use fictional Half-Time/Full-Time odds in the following example and I’ll update the bottom of the post with my actual selection after the match.
I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges.
We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £23.10…
Place £25.00 on Man Utd/Man Utd @ 3.40 = Potential profit of £60.00
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
|Man Utd/Man Utd||+ £60.00 – £62.36 = £2.36 loss|
|Not Man Utd/Man Utd and match is a draw||- £25.00 + £22.64 + £20.00 (extract 80% from our £25.00 free bet) = £17.64 profit|
|Not Man Utd/Man Utd and match isn't a draw||- £25.00 + £22.64 = £2.36 loss|
So, as things stand, if the match is a draw, we’ll make a profit of £17.64. Any other outcome and we’ll have made a loss of £2.36.
We can actually make this offer risk-free by placing an extra lay bet on the match being a draw. To work out our lay stake, we just need to divide our potential loss of £2.36 by 0.98 (to account for the 2% commission) which gives us a lay stake of £2.41…
Let’s have a look at our overall profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
|Man Utd/Man Utd||- £2.36 + £2.36 = £0.00|
|Not Man Utd/Man Utd and match is a draw||+ £17.64 – £6.02 = £11.62 profit|
|Not Man Utd/Man Utd and match isn't a draw||- £2.36 + £2.36 = £0.00|
So, if the game isn’t drawn, we’ll have broken even and there’s no harm done. If, however, the game is drawn, we’ll have made a nice risk-free profit of £11.62.
If you wish, you can overlay on the draw to guarantee yourself a small profit on any outcome. To calculate your overlay stake on the draw, just divide £20.00 (the amount we expect to extract from our £25.00 free bet refund) by the draw lay odds (minus 0.02 to account for the 2% commission at Smarkets).
If the game is drawn, our free bet will be credited within 24 hours and will be valid for 7 days.
If you’re unsure how to extract 80% cash from a £25.00 free bet, please see my free bet strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.
NOTE: This offer also applies to Match Result (Win Draw Win) bets placed in shop on The Grid. Match Result refunds do not apply to any other customers. Free bets will be issued when the losing receipt is presented at the counter and will be valid for 7 days.
* I actually placed my qualifying bet on Liverpool/Liverpool (Half-Time/Full-Time) at back odds of 6.50 and lay odds of 7.60. I placed my extra lay bet on the draw at odds of 3.45, meaning I made a profit of £6.04 on this Ladbrokes offer. *