Another fantastic Paddy Power free bet offer. If Arsenal fail to beat Hull City in the FA Cup today, Paddy Power will refund all losing First/Last Goalscorer, Correct Score and Scorecast singles on that match as a free bet up to a maximum of £100.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £18.61 and here’s how…
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walkthrough guide on how to place your qualifying bets.
We need to select a scoreline that is an Arsenal win. This ensures that if Arsenal fail to beat Hull City, we will automatically be eligible for a free bet refund as our qualifying bet will have lost. Having looked at the odds available, I’ve opted for a 2-0 Arsenal win.
Place £100.00 on 2-0 Arsenal @ 7.00 = Potential profit of £600.00
Lay £88.05 on 2-0 Arsenal @ 8.00 = Potential liability of £616.35
Let’s have a look at our current potential profit/loss for the following outcomes…
| 2-0 Arsenal | +£600.00 – £616.35 = £16.35 loss |
| Not 2-0 Arsenal and Arsenal don’t win | -£100.00 + £83.65 + £80.00 (extract 80% from our £100.00 free bet) = £63.65 profit |
| Not 2-0 Arsenal and Arsenal win | -£100.00 + £83.65 = £16.35 loss |
So as things stand we will make £63.65 profit if Arsenal fail to beat Hull City . Unfortunately, we also stand to lose £16.35 on any Arsenal win and so we need to insure ourselves against this by backing Arsenal. We can get odds of 1.363 at BetVictor on an Arsenal win (at the time of writing), so if we divide £16.35 by 0.363, this gives us a back stake of £45.04.
Place £45.04 on Arsenal @ 1.363 = Potential profit of £16.35
Let’s have a look at our resulting potential profit/loss for the following outcomes…
| 2-0 Arsenal | -£16.35 + £16.35 = £0.00 |
| Not 2-0 Arsenal and Arsenal don’t win | £63.65 – £45.04 = £18.61 profit |
| Not 2-0 Arsenal and Arsenal win | -£16.35 + £16.35 = £0.00 |
So if Arsenal fail to beat Hull City, we will make a nice profit of £18.61! If, however, Arsenal get the job done, we will break even and there’s no harm done. If you’re not sure how to extract 80% of the £100.00 free bet refund, please see my Free Bet Strategy page for a walkthrough guide on how it should be done.
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.