Paddy Power Free Bet Offer – Derby v QPR

Another fantastic Paddy Power free bet offer.  If Derby County v QPR is a draw, Paddy Power will refund all losing First/Last Goalscorer, Correct Score and Scorecast singles on that match as a free bet up to a maximum of £100.00.  Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £16.08!  And here’s how…

When doing these Paddy Power free bet offers, I always prefer to stick to the correct score market for these type of offers and we need to select a correct score that isn’t a draw.  This ensures that if the game is drawn, we will qualify for the free bet as our initial bet will have lost.  Having looked at the odds on offer, I’ve opted for a 1-0 QPR win.

Step 1:

paddypower

Place £100.00 on 1-0 QPR @ 9.00 = Potential profit of £800.00

betfair

Lay £86.12 on 1-0 QPR @ 10.50 = Potential liability of £818.14

Step 2:

Let’s have a look at our current potential profit/loss for the following outcomes…

 

1-0 QPR +£800.00 – £818.14 = £18.14 loss
Not 1-0 QPR and draw -£100.00 + £81.90 + £80.00 (extract 80% from our £100.00 free bet) = £61.90 profit
Not 1-0 QPR and not drawn -£100.00 + £81.90 = £18.10 loss

 

So as things stand we will make £61.90 profit if the match is drawn.  Unfortunately, we also stand to lose a maximum of £18.14 if the game isn’t drawn and so we need to insure ourselves against this by laying the draw at Betfair.

 

Step 3:

As £18.14 is the maximum we stand to lose, we need to work out our lay stake by taking commission into consideration. £18.14 / 0.95 = £19.09.

betfair

Lay £19.09 on the draw @ 3.40 = Potential liability of £45.82

Let’s have a look at our resulting potential profit/loss for the following outcomes…

 

1-0 QPR -£18.14 + £18.14 = £0.00
Not 1-0 QPR and draw +£61.90 – £45.82 = £16.08 profit
Not 1-0 QPR and not drawn -£18.10 + £18.14 = £0.04 profit

 

If the game isn’t drawn, we will break even, so no harm done.  If the game is drawn, we will make a nice profit of £16.08!  Easy!

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Matt Kirman - Matched Betting Blogger

Matt KirmanMatched Betting Blogger

Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £70,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.