Another fantastic Paddy Power free bet offer. Pick your own Money Back Special from the four options and if it happens, Paddy Power will refund all losing First Goalscorer, Last Goalscorer, Correct Score and Scorecast singles on this match as a free bet up to maximum of £100.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential risk-free profit of £8.11 and here’s how…
Qualifying Bet:
The four options for this offer are ‘if Liverpool win’, ‘if Fabregas scores anytime’, ‘if Costa scores first’ and ‘If it’s a 1-1 draw’. I’ve crunched the figures and the only trigger I can get a risk-free profit on is the ‘if Liverpool win’ option, so we need to make sure this is selected.
If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walkthrough guide on how to place your qualifying bets.
I always stick to the correct score markets for these offers, as it is the only way we can make it risk-free. We need to select a scoreline that isn’t a Liverpool win. This ensures that if Liverpool win, we will automatically be eligible for a free bet refund as our qualifying bet will have lost. Having looked at the odds available, I’ve opted for a 1-1 draw.
Place £100.00 on 1-1 draw @ 6.50 = Potential profit of £550.00
Lay £86.09 on 1-1 draw @ 7.60 = Potential liability of £568.19
Let’s have a look at our current potential profit/loss for the following outcomes…
| 1-1 draw | +£550.00 – £568.19 = £18.19 loss |
| Not 1-1 draw and Liverpool win | -£100.00 + £81.79 + £80.00 (extract 80% from our £100.00 free bet) = £61.79 profit |
| Not 1-1 draw and Liverpool don’t win | -£100.00 + £81.79 = £18.21 loss |
So as things stand we will make £61.79 profit if Liverpool win. Unfortunately, we also stand to lose a maximum of £18.21 on any other result and so we need to insure ourselves against this by laying Liverpool at Betfair. We need to divide our potential loss of £18.21 by 0.95 to account for the 5% commission that is deducted from any winnings. This gives us a lay stake of £19.17.
Lay £19.17 on Liverpool @ 3.80 = Potential liability of £53.68
Let’s have a look at our resulting potential profit/loss for the following outcomes…
| 1-1 draw | -£18.19 + £18.21 = £0.02 profit |
| Not 1-1 draw and Liverpool win | £61.79 – £53.68 = £8.11 profit |
| Not 1-1 draw and Liverpool don’t win | -£18.21 + £18.21= £0.00 |
So if Liverpool beat Chelsea, we will make a nice profit of £8.11. If, however, Liverpool don’t win, we will break even and there’s no harm done. If you’re not sure how to extract 80% of the £100.00 free bet refund, please see my Free Bet Strategy page for a walkthrough guide on how it should be done.
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.