Another fantastic Paddy Power free bet offer. If the Champions League match between Liverpool and FC Basel is drawn, Paddy Power will refund all losing First/Last Goalscorer, Correct Score and Scorecast singles on that match as a free bet up to a maximum of £100.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £13.55 and here’s how…
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walkthrough guide on how to place your qualifying bets.
We need to select a scoreline that isn’t a draw. This ensures that if the game is drawn, we will automatically be eligible for a free bet refund as our qualifying bet will have lost. Having looked at the odds available, I’ve opted for a 1-0 FC Basel win.
Place £100.00 on 1-0 FC Basel @ 15.00 = Potential profit of £1,400.00
Lay £88.50 on 1-0 FC Basel @ 17.00 = Potential liability of £1,416.00
Let’s have a look at our current potential profit/loss for the following outcomes…
1-0 FC Basel | +£1400.00 – £1416.00 = £16.00 loss |
Not 1-0 FC Basel and the game is drawn | -£100.00 + £84.07 + £80.00 (extract 80% from our £100.00 free bet) = £64.07 profit |
Not 1-0 FC Basel and the game isn’t drawn | -£100.00 + £84.07 = £15.93 loss |
So as things stand we will make £64.07 profit if the match is drawn. Unfortunately, we also stand to lose a maximum of £16.00 on any other result and so we need to insure ourselves against this by laying the draw at Betfair. We need to divide £16.00 by 0.95 in order to factor in the 5% commission. This gives us a lay stake of £16.84.
Let’s have a look at our resulting potential profit/loss for the following outcomes…
1-0 FC Basel | -£16.00 + £16.00 = £0.00 |
Not 1-0 FC Basel and the game is drawn | £64.07 – £50.52 = £13.55 profit |
Not 1-0 FC Basel and the game isn’t drawn | -£15.93 + £16.00 = £0.07 profit |
So if the game is drawn, we will make a nice profit of £13.55! If the game isn’t drawn, we will break even and there’s no harm done. If you’re not sure how to extract 80% of the £100.00 free bet refund, please see my Free Bet Strategy page for a walkthrough guide on how it should be done.
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £70,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.