Paddy Power Free Bet Offer – Liverpool v Middlesbrough

Another fantastic Paddy Power free bet offer.  If the Capital One Cup match between Liverpool and Middlesbrough isn’t won by Liverpool in 90 minutes, Paddy Power will refund all losing First/Last Goalscorer, Correct Score and Scorecast singles on that match as a free bet up to a maximum of £100.00.  Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £35.58 and here’s how…

Qualifying bet

If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walkthrough guide on how to place your qualifying bets.

We need to select a scoreline that is a Liverpool win.  This ensures that if Liverpool don’t win in 90 minutes, we will automatically be eligible for a free bet refund as our qualifying bet will have lost.  Having looked at the odds available, I’ve opted for a 3-1 Liverpool win.

paddypower

Place £100.00 on 3-1 Liverpool @ 12.00 = Potential profit of £1,100.00

betfair

Lay £89.22 on 3-1 Liverpool @ 13.50 = Potential liability of £1,115.25

Let’s have a look at our current potential profit/loss for the following outcomes…

3-1 Liverpool +£1100.00 – £1115.25 = £15.25 loss
Not 3-1 Liverpool and the game isn’t won by Liverpool in 90 mins -£100.00 + £84.76 + £80.00 (extract 80% from our £100.00 free bet) = £64.76 profit
Not 3-1 Liverpool and the game is won by Liverpool in 90 mins -£100.00 + £84.76 = £15.24 loss

So as things stand we will make £64.76 profit if the match is isn’t won by Liverpool in 90 minutes.  Unfortunately, we also stand to lose a maximum of £15.25 on a Liverpool win and so we need to insure ourselves against this by backing Liverpool at Betfair.  We need to divide £15.25 by 0.95 in order to factor in the 5% commission.  This gives us required profit of £16.05.  The odds of a Liverpool win are currently 1.55 and so £16.05 divided by 0.55 gives us a back stake of £29.18.

betfair

Place £29.18 on Liverpool @ 1.55 = Potential profit of £15.25 (£16.05 – 5% commission)

Let’s have a look at our resulting potential profit/loss for the following outcomes…

3-1 Liverpool -£15.25 + £15.25 = £0.00
Not 3-1 Liverpool and the game isn’t won by Liverpool in 90 mins £64.76 – £29.18 = £35.58 profit
Not 3-1 Liverpool and the game is won by Liverpool in 90 mins -£15.24 + £15.25 = £0.01 profit

So if the game isn’t won by Liverpool in 90 minutes, we will make a nice profit of £35.58!  If, however, the game is won by Liverpool in 90 minutes, we will break even and there’s no harm done.  If you’re not sure how to extract 80% of the £100.00 free bet refund, please see my Free Bet Strategy page for a walkthrough guide on how it should be done.

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Matt Kirman - Matched Betting Blogger

Matt KirmanMatched Betting Blogger

Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £70,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.