It’s the Manchester derby on Saturday and Paddy Power are getting in on the action! Simply bet £25.00 on either Manchester United or Manchester City to win the match and if our selection is losing at half-time, Paddy Power will give us a £25.00 free bet! Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £18.68 and here’s how…
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.
It’s entirely up to you who you place your qualifying bet on, as long as you place it on either Manchester United or Manchester City in the Win-Draw-Win market. Having looked at the odds available, I’ve opted to keep my qualifying loss to a minimum by placing my qualifying bet on Manchester United.
WARNING: Following the recent merger between Paddy Power and Betfair, to become Paddy Power Betfair, it’s no longer a good idea to place our lay bets with Betfair as this will surely increase our chances of getting restricted. Therefore, when doing Paddy Power offers, we need to place our lay bets with Smarkets. They have great liquidity, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by Betfair. We can also grab a £10.00 risk-free bet, just for signing up.
We can calculate our lay stakes using my matched betting calculator…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £24.16…
Place £25.00 on Man Utd @ 2.30 = Potential profit of £32.50
Lay £24.16 on Man Utd @ 2.40 = Potential liability of £33.82
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
| Man Utd win | + £32.50 – £33.82 = £1.32 loss |
| Man Utd don’t win | – £25.00 + £23.68 (£24.16 minus 2% commission) = £1.32 loss |
So, regardless of the result of the match, we will lose £1.32 in qualifying for this offer.
Free Bet:
If Manchester United are losing at half-time, we will receive a £25.00 free bet, from which we should be able to extract 80% as cash, so £20.00.
If we take into account our qualifying loss of £1.32, this gives us a potential profit of £18.68. Risking £1.32 to make a profit of £18.68, gives us effective odds of 15.15, so given that the odds of Manchester City being in front at half-time are 3.75, this is a profitable offer in the long run.
If eligible, our free bet will be credited at half-time and must be used on football. Free bets will be valid for 7 days and free bet stakes are not included in any returns.
More reload offers – Make £300+ per month
With detailed walkthroughs for all the best offers as they’re released, you’ll be bagging recurring profits in no time.
More reload offers
Got a question?
Leave me a comment below…
I usually respond within 24 hours.
Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.