Paddy Power Offer – Premier League (Week 9)

It’s Week 9 of the Premier League 2016/17 season and you don’t want to miss this Paddy Power offer! Simply bet £20.00 on any televised Premier League game this weekend and if our selection is leading after 60 minutes but fails to win the match, Paddy Power will give us a £20.00 free bet! Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us an overall potential profit of £77.25 and here’s how…

Qualifying Bets:

This weekend’s eligible matches are as follows…

Fixture Kick-Off Date
Bournemouth v Tottenham 12:30 Saturday 22nd October 2016
Liverpool v West Brom 17:30 Saturday 22nd October 2016
Man City v Southampton 13:30 Sunday 23rd October 2016
Chelsea v Man Utd 16:00 Sunday 23rd October 2016

If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.

This offer applies to pre-match single bets placed on the Win-Draw-Win market for the above fixtures. If our selected teams are leading after 60 minutes, but fail to win the match, Paddy Power will refund our stake on that match as a free bet, up to a maximum of £20.00.

Having looked at the odds available for Bournemouth v Tottenham, I’ve opted to place my qualifying bet on Tottenham.

 

WARNING: Following the recent merger between Paddy Power and Betfair, to become Paddy Power Betfair, it’s no longer a good idea to place our lay bets with Betfair as this will surely increase our chances of getting restricted. Therefore, when doing Paddy Power offers, we need to place our lay bets with Smarkets. They have great liquidity, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by Betfair. We can also grab a £10.00 risk-free bet, just for signing up.

 

We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…

Back Bet (Bookie)

%

Lay Bet (Betting Exchange)

%

Min £
Max £
Lay stake required: £
Bookie
Exchange
Cashback
Total
If back (bookie) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
If lay (exchange) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
Total profit: £

Optimal Underlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

Optimal Overlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £20.00…

paddypower logo

Place £20.00 on Tottenham @ 2.00 = Potential profit of £20.00

smarkets whiteLay £20.00 on Tottenham @ 2.02 = Potential liability of £20.40

Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

Tottenham win + £20.00 – £20.40 = £0.40 loss
Tottenham don’t win (leading after 60 mins) – £20.00 + £19.60 + £16.00 (extract 80% from £20.00 free bet) = £15.60 profit
Tottenham don’t win (not leading after 60 mins) – £20.00 + £19.60 = £0.40 loss

So, if Tottenham don’t win, having been leading after 60 minutes, we’ll make a nice profit of £15.60. Any other outcome and we’ll have made a small loss of £0.40. Risking £0.40 to make a profit of £15.60, gives us effective odds of 40.00, which I’m sure you’ll agree, makes this a profitable offer in the long run.

This offer is available on all four specified matches. It’s entirely up to you which selections you go for, but here’s what I’ll be going for…

Fixture Selection Back Odds Lay Odds Qualifying Loss Potential Profit
Bournemouth v Tottenham Tottenham 2.00 2.02 £0.40 £19.60
Liverpool v West Brom Liverpool 1.25 1.30 £0.86 £19.14
Man City v Southampton Man City 1.50 1.52 £0.40 £19.60
Chelsea v Man Utd Chelsea 2.20 2.30 £1.09 £18.91

So, as you can see, we’ll lose £2.75 if we don’t hit any winners, but with £77.25 in potential profit up for grabs, this offer is well worth a shot!

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Matt Kirman - Matched Betting Blogger

Matt KirmanMatched Betting Blogger

Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £70,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.