Paddy Power Offer – Slovenia v England

England visit Slovenia on Tuesday and Paddy Power are getting in on the action! Simply bet £25.00 on either Slovenia or England to win the match and if our selection is losing at half-time, Paddy Power will give us a £25.00 free bet! Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a risk-free potential profit of £11.65 and here’s how…

Qualifying Bet:

If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.

It’s entirely up to you who you place your qualifying bet on, as long as you place it on either Slovenia or England in the Win-Draw-Win market. Having looked at the odds available, I’ve opted to place my qualifying bet on the underdogs, Slovenia.

 

WARNING: Following the recent merger between Paddy Power and Betfair, to become Paddy Power Betfair, it’s no longer a good idea to place our lay bets with Betfair as this will surely increase our chances of getting restricted. Therefore, when doing Paddy Power offers, we need to place our lay bets with Smarkets. They have great liquidity, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by Betfair. We can also grab a £10.00 risk-free bet, just for signing up.

 

We can calculate our lay stakes using my matched betting calculator…

Back Bet (Bookie)

%

Lay Bet (Betting Exchange)

%

Min £
Max £
Lay stake required: £
Bookie
Exchange
Cashback
Total
If back (bookie) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
If lay (exchange) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
Total profit: £

Optimal Underlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

Optimal Overlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £22.80…

paddypower

Place £25.00 on Slovenia @ 6.00 = Potential profit of £125.00

smarkets white

Lay £22.80 on Slovenia @ 6.60 = Potential liability of £127.66

Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

Slovenia win (not losing at half-time) + £125.00 – £127.66 = £2.66 loss
Slovenia win (losing at half-time) + £125.00 – £127.66 + £20.00 (extract 80% from £25.00 free bet) = £17.34 profit
Slovenia don’t win (not losing at half-time) – £25.00 + £22.34 = £2.66 loss
Slovenia don’t win (losing at half-time) – £25.00 + £22.34 + £20.00 (extract 80% from £25.00 free bet) = £17.34 profit

So, as things stand, if Slovenia are losing at half-time, we will make a nice profit of £17.34. If, however, they’re not losing at half-time, we’ll lose £2.66.

By placing an extra lay bet on England to be winning at half-time, we can actually make this offer risk-free. In order to work out our lay stake, we just need to divide our potential loss of £2.66 by 0.98 (to account for the 2% commission) which gives us £2.71…

smarkets white

Lay £2.71 on England (Half-Time Result) @ 3.10 = Potential liability of £5.69

Let’s have a look at our overall profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

Slovenia win (not losing at half-time) – £2.66 + £2.66 = £0.00
Slovenia win (losing at half-time) + £17.34 – £5.69 = £11.65 profit
Slovenia don’t win (not losing at half-time) – £2.66 + £2.66 = £0.00
Slovenia don’t win (losing at half-time) + £17.34 – £5.69 = £11.65 profit

So, if Slovenia are not losing at half-time, we’ll break even and there’s no harm done. If, however, Slovenia are losing at half-time, we’ll have made a nice risk-free profit of £11.65 on this Paddy Power offer!

Free Bet:

The above workings are based on the fact that if Slovenia are losing at half-time, we will receive a £25.00 free bet, from which we should be able to extract 80% as cash, so £20.00.

If eligible, our free bet will be credited at half-time and must be used on football. Free bets will be valid for 7 days and free bet stakes are not included in any returns.

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Matt Kirman - Matched Betting Blogger

Matt KirmanMatched Betting Blogger

Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £70,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.