Paddy Power Offer – Sunderland v Middlesbrough

It’s the Tees-Wear derby today and Paddy Power are getting in on the action! Simply bet £25.00 on either Sunderland or Middlesbrough to win the match and if our selection is losing at half-time, Paddy Power will give us a £25.00 free bet! Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £18.23 and here’s how…

Qualifying Bet:

If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.

It’s entirely up to you who you place your qualifying bet on, as long as you place it on either Sunderland or Middlesbrough in the Win-Draw-Win market. There is no clear favourite to win this match, so having looked at the odds available, I’ve opted to place my qualifying bet on Middlesbrough.

WARNING: Following the recent merger between Paddy Power and Betfair, to become Paddy Power Betfair, it’s no longer a good idea to place our lay bets with Betfair as this will surely increase our chances of getting restricted. Therefore, when doing Paddy Power offers, we need to place our lay bets with Smarkets. They have great liquidity, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by Betfair. We can also grab a £10.00 risk-free bet, just for signing up.

We can calculate our lay stakes using my matched betting calculator…

Back Bet (Bookie)

%

Lay Bet (Betting Exchange)

%

Min £
Max £
Lay stake required: £
Bookie
Exchange
Cashback
Total
If back (bookie) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
If lay (exchange) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
Total profit: £

Optimal Underlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

Optimal Overlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £23.71…

paddypower

Place £25.00 on Middlesbrough @ 2.75 = Potential profit of £43.75

smarkets white

Lay £23.71 on Middlesbrough @ 2.92 = Potential liability of £45.52

Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

Middlesbrough win + £43.75 – £45.52 = £1.77 loss
Middlesbrough don’t win – £25.00 + £23.23 (£23.71 minus 2% commission) = £1.77 loss

So, regardless of the result of the match, we will lose £1.77 in qualifying for this offer.

Free Bet:

If Middlesbrough are losing at half-time, we will receive a £25.00 free bet, from which we should be able to extract 80% as cash, so £20.00.

If we take into account our qualifying loss of £1.77, this gives us a potential profit of £18.23. Risking £1.77 to make a profit of £18.23, gives us effective odds of 11.30, so given that the odds of Sunderland being in front at half-time are 3.30, this is a profitable offer in the long run.

If eligible, our free bet will be credited at half-time and must be used on football. Free bets will be valid for 7 days and free bet stakes are not included in any returns.

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Matt Kirman - Matched Betting Blogger

Matt KirmanMatched Betting Blogger

Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £70,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.