Real Madrid v Barcelona – Paddy Power Money-Back Special

This is a fantastic Money-Back Special offer from Paddy Power.  If Lionel Messi scores anytime for Barcelona against Real Madrid on Sunday, Paddy Power will refund all losing First/Last Goalscorer, Correct Score and Scorecast singles on that match as a free bet up to a maximum of £100.00.  Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £20.05!  And here’s how…

I always prefer to stick to the correct score market for these type of offers and we need to select a correct score that sees Real Madrid keep a clean sheet.  This ensures that if Lionel Messi scores anytime, we will qualify for the free bet as our initial bet will have lost.  Having looked at the odds on offer, I’ve opted for a 1-0 Real Madrid win.

Step 1:

Step 2:

Let’s have a look at our current potential profit/loss for the following outcomes…

So as things stand we will make £54.91 profit if Real Madrid don’t win 1-0 and Messi scores.  Unfortunately, we also stand to lose a maximum of £25.09 if Messi doesnt score and so we need to insure ourselves against this by laying ‘Messi to score anytime’ at Betfair.

Step 3:

As £25.09 is the maximum we stand to lose, we need to work out our lay stake by taking commission into consideration. £25.09 / 0.95 = £26.41.

Let’s have a look at our resulting potential profit/loss for the following outcomes…

If Messi doesn’t find the net, we will break even, so no harm done.  If he does score, we will make a nice profit of £20.05!  Easy!