This is a fantastic Money-Back Special offer from Youwin. Place a Match Odds bet on Real Madrid v Barcelona and Youwin will refund all losing bets in cash if Lionel Messi scores the first goal up to a maximum of £50.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £24.32! And here’s how…
We will need to select a match odds result and hope it doesn’t come in as only losing bets are refunded in the event of Messi scoring the first goal. It therefore makes sense to back Real Madrid as this is definitely the most unlikely outcome if Messi does score the first goal of the match.
Step 1:
Place £50.00 on Real Madrid @ 2.15 = Potential profit of £57.50
Lay £48.21 on Real Madrid @ 2.28 = Potential liability of £61.71
Step 2:
Let’s have a look at our current potential profit/loss for the following outcomes…
| Real Madrid win + Messi scores first | +£57.50 – £61.71 = £4.21 loss |
| Real Madrid win + Messi doesn’t score first | +£57.50 – £61.71 = £4.21 loss |
| Real Madrid don’t win + Messi scores first | -£50.00 + £45.80 + £50.00 refund = £45.80 profit |
| Real Madrid don’t win + Messi doesn’t score first | -£50.00 + £45.80 = £4.20 loss |
So as things stand we will make £45.80 profit if Real Madrid don’t win and Lionel Messi scores the first goal. Unfortunately, we also stand to lose approximately £4.20 on any other outcome and so we need to insure ourselves against this by laying Lionel Messi to score first at Betfair.
Step 3:
As £4.21 is the maximum we stand to lose, we need to work out our lay stake by taking commission into consideration. £4.21 / 0.95 = £4.43.
Lay £4.43 on Messi First Goalscorer @ 5.60 = Potential liability of £20.38.
Let’s have a look at our resulting potential profit/loss for the following outcomes…
| Real Madrid win + Messi scores first | -£4.21 – £20.38 = £24.59 loss |
| Real Madrid win + Messi doesn’t score first | -£4.21 + £4.21 = £0.00 |
| Real Madrid don’t win + Messi scores first | +£45.80 – £20.38 = £25.42 profit |
| Real Madrid don’t win + Messi doesn’t score first | -£4.20 + £4.21 = £0.01 profit |
So now as things stand we will make £25.42 profit if Real Madrid don’t win and Lionel Messi scores the first goal. As you can see, if Lionel Messi doesn’t score the first goal, then we can rest assured that we’ll either break even or make a measly profit of £0.01.
The outcome that isn’t looking great at the minute is Lionel Messi scoring first and Real Madrid coming back to win. We can insure ourselves against this though by following the game in-play. If Lionel Messi scores the first goal of the match we will be looking at the following outcomes…
| Real Madrid win | £24.59 loss |
| Real Madrid don’t win | £25.42 profit |
In order to insure ourselves against incurring the hefty loss, we must now back Real Madrid in-play. If Messi scores the first goal, I would expect the odds on a Real Madrid win to be around 7.00.
Place £4.10 in-play on Real Madrid @ 7.00 = Potential profit of £24.60
So our final profit/loss will be as follows…
| Real Madrid win | -£24.59 + £24.60 = £0.01 profit |
| Real Madrid don’t win | +£25.42 – £4.10 = £24.32 profit |
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.