Stan James Offer – Champions League – 24/11/2015

The Champions league returns this week and so does the Stan James 2/1+ Free Bet Special. Place a single bet on any market at 3.00 (2/1) or greater on Arsenal v Dinamo Zagreb or Maccabi Tel Aviv v Chelsea and if it goes on to win, Stan James will match our stake as a free bet up to £25.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £16.97 and here’s how…

 

Qualifying bet:

We need to find a selection with tight back and lay odds as close to the 3.00 (2/1) as possible to give ourselves the best chance of bagging a free bet. Having looked at the odds available, I’ve opted to place my qualifying bet on there being ‘Under 1.5 Goals’ in Maccabi Tel Aviv v Chelsea.

I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges.

We can calculate our lay stake using the following matched betting calendar…

Back Bet (Bookie)

%

Lay Bet (Betting Exchange)

%

Min £
Max £
Lay stake required: £
Bookie
Exchange
Cashback
Total
If back (bookie) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
If lay (exchange) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
Total profit: £

Optimal Underlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

Optimal Overlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £22.42…

stanjames

Place £25.00 on ‘Under 1.5 Goals’ @ 3.30 = Potential profit of £57.50

smarkets white

Lay £22.42 on ‘Under 1.5 Goals’ @ 3.70 = Potential liability of £60.53

Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the two outcomes…

Under 1.5 Goals + £57.50 – £60.53 + £20.00 (80% of our £25.00 free bet) = £16.97 profit
Over 1.5 Goals – £25.00 + £21.97 = £3.03 loss

So if there is no more than one goal in the game, we’ll make a profit of £16.97, otherwise we’ll make a loss of £3.03. Risking £3.03 to make a profit of £16.97, gives us effective odds of 6.60 and given that the odds are 3.30 of there being under 1.5 goals, this is a profitable offer in the long run.

If you’re not sure how to extract 80% of our £25.00 free bet, please see my Free Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.

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Matt Kirman - Matched Betting Blogger

Matt KirmanMatched Betting Blogger

Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £70,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.