TonyBet Offer – Euro 2016 Semi-Finals

The Euro 2016 Semi-Finals get underway tonight and you don’t want to miss this TonyBet offer! Bet at least £20.00 on any of the four sides to reach the Final and if they lose their Semi-Final on penalties, TonyBet will refund our stake as a bonus! Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £17.47 and here’s how…

Qualifying Bet:

If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.

This offer is available until 20:00 on Thursday 7th July 2016.

We must click through the dedicated promotion page and place our bet on the ‘UEFA Euro 2016 – To reach final’ Specials market.

It’s entirely up to you who you place your qualifying bet on, but having looked at the odds available, I’ve opted to place my qualifying bet on Portugal.

I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges.

We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…

Back Bet (Bookie)

%

Lay Bet (Betting Exchange)

%

Min £
Max £
Lay stake required: £
Bookie
Exchange
Cashback
Total
If back (bookie) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
If lay (exchange) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
Total profit: £

Optimal Underlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

Optimal Overlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £19.87…

tonybet

Place £20.00 on Portugal to reach final @ 1.55 = Potential profit of £11.00

smarkets whiteLay £19.87 on Portugal to qualify @ 1.58 = Potential liability of £11.53

Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

Portugal qualify + £11.00 – £11.53 = £0.53 loss
Portugal get knocked out on penalties – £20.00 + £19.47 + £18.00 (extract 90% from our £20.00 bonus) = £17.47 profit
Portugal get knocked out by other means – £20.00 + £19.47 = £0.53 loss

So, if Portugal get knocked out on penalties, we will make a nice profit of £17.47. Any other outcome and we’ll have made a loss of £0.53. Risking £0.53 to make a profit of £17.47, gives us effective odds of 33.96, so given that the odds of Portugal getting knocked out on penalties are 9.00 with most bookmakers, this is a profitable offer in the long run.

If Portugal get knocked out on penalties, our bonus refund will be credited by 16:00 the following day.

Bonuses need rolling over three times at minimum odds of 1.85 or greater, within 7 days, before we are able to withdraw. The above calculations are therefore based on the assumption that, by using straightforward matched betting, we should be able to extract 90% cash from our £20.00 bonus.

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Matt Kirman - Matched Betting Blogger

Matt KirmanMatched Betting Blogger

Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £70,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.