The Champions League Semi-Finals get underway this week and this TonyBet offer is not to be missed. Place a £5.00 Correct Score bet on Manchester City v Real Madrid and/or Atletico Madrid v Bayern Munich and if it loses, TonyBet will refund us as a bonus up to a maximum of £5.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a guaranteed minimum profit of £6.42 and here’s how…
Qualifying Bets:
For this offer we need to select correct scores that have tight back and lay odds. If we treat this as a risk-free bet offer and underlay our bets instead of matching them completely, we can guarantee ourselves a profit on any outcome. Having looked at the odds available for Manchester City v Real Madrid, I’ve opted to place my qualifying bet on a 0-0 draw.
I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges.
We can calculate our lay stake using the ‘Risk-Free Bet’ setting on my matched betting calculator…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £3.79…
Place £5.00 on a 0-0 draw @ 13.00 = Potential profit of £60.00
Lay £3.79 on a 0-0 draw @ 16.00 = Potential liability of £56.79
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
| 0-0 draw | + £60.00 – £56.79 = £3.21 profit |
| Not a 0-0 draw | – £5.00 + £3.71 + £4.50 (extract 90% from our £5.00 bonus) = £3.21 profit |
So, regardless of the result of the match, we will make a guaranteed profit of £3.21. If we follow the same strategy for Atletico Madrid v Bayern Munich on Wednesday, we should make a total guaranteed minimum profit of £6.42 on this TonyBet offer.
The above calculations are made on the basis that, should our correct score bet lose, we can extract 90% from our £5.00 bonus as cash, so £4.50. This is because any bonuses we receive must be rolled over once at minimum odds of 1.85 or above. If our qualifying bet loses, our cashback will be credited by 18:00 the following day.
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.