Kick-off time (GMT): 11/01/2017 : 19:45
Liverpool visit Southampton in the EFL Cup Semi-Finals tonight and Unibet are getting in on the action. Place a £10.00+ in play mobile bet at odds of 2.00 (evens) or greater on Southampton v Liverpool and if it’s a winner, Unibet will give us a £10.00 free in play bet. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £7.42 and here’s how…
If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.
This offer only applies to in play bets placed at odds of 2.00 (evens) or greater, on the Unibet app or Unibet mobile site.
It’s impossible to know what odds will be available until the game gets underway. We’ll need to find a selection with tight back and lay odds as close to 2.00 (evens) as possible to give ourselves the best chance of bagging a free in play bet.
I’ll use fictional odds in the following example and I’ll update the bottom of the post with my actual selection after the match.
It’s entirely up to you when you place your in play bet, but it may be worth waiting until half-time when the odds are fairly stable. It reduces the risk of the odds fluctuating unfavourably whilst we are trying to get our lay bets on.
I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges.
We can calculate our lay stake using the following matched betting calculator…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £9.62…
Place £10.00 on Liverpool @ 2.25 = Potential profit of £12.50
Lay £9.62 on Liverpool @ 2.36 = Potential liability of £13.08
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the two outcomes…
|Liverpool win||+ £12.50 – £13.08 + £8.00 (extract 80% of £10.00 free in play bet) = £7.42 profit|
|Liverpool don't win||- £10.00 + £9.42 (£9.62 minus 2% commission) = £0.58 loss|
So, if Liverpool win, we’ll make a profit of £7.42, otherwise we’ll make a loss of £0.58. Risking £0.58 to make a profit of £7.42, gives us effective odds of 13.79, so given the fact that the odds are 2.25 on Liverpool winning the match, this is a profitable offer in the long run.
If our qualifying bet wins, our £10.00 free in play bet will be credited within 48 hours. Free bet stakes are not included in any returns.
If you’re not sure how to extract 80% of our £10.00 free in play bet, please see my Free Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.
Again, we should place our free in play bet at half-time, to reduce the risk of the odds fluctuating unfavourably whilst we are trying to get our lay bets on.
NOTE: For those of you that would prefer to lock in a guaranteed profit on this offer, you could simply add 0.80 (80% extracted from your £10.00 free in play bet) to your back odds of 2.25, to give you your effective odds of 3.05. This will enable you to make a guaranteed profit of £2.77. It’s more profitable in the long run to do this offer as set out above. We are effectively risking our £2.77 guaranteed profit to make a profit of £7.42, which gives us effective odds of 2.68, which are higher than the actual odds (2.25) of Liverpool winning the match.
* I actually placed my qualifying in play bet on a draw at back odds of 2.95 and lay odds of 3.00. Southampton won the match 1-0, meaning I made a loss of £0.30 on this Unibet offer. *