William Hill Offer – Leicester City v Derby

Leicester City host Derby in their FA Cup 4th Round Replay tonight and you don’t want to miss this William Hill offer! Simply place a bet on Leicester City v Derby, and if 4 or more goals are scored in the game, William Hill will give us a 25% free bet win bonus. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £13.95 and here’s how…

Qualifying Bets:

If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.

If 4 or more goals are scored in the match, William Hill will give us a 25% win bonus, up to £100.00, paid as a free bet.

This offer applies to winning bets placed on ‘Match Betting’, ‘Both Teams To Score’ and ‘Match Result & Both Teams To Score’ markets. Qualifying bets must be placed at odds of 1.20 (1/5) or greater, to be eligible.

Free bets will be credited by midday the following day and will be valid for 7 days.

I wouldn’t advise going for the maximum £100.00 bonus on these as it may arouse suspicion. It’s probably best to play it safe and aim for the £25.00 mark.

At the time of writing, the odds aren’t quite tight enough, so I’ll use fictional odds in the following example and I’ll update the bottom of the post with my actual selections after the matches have been played. It may be worth placing our qualifying bets on both teams to score as you would expect both teams to have scored if 4 or more goals are scored in the match.

I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges.

We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…

Back Bet (Bookie)

%

Lay Bet (Betting Exchange)

%

Min £
Max £
Lay stake required: £
Bookie
Exchange
Cashback
Total
If back (bookie) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
If lay (exchange) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
Total profit: £

Optimal Underlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

Optimal Overlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £99.95…

williamhill

Place £100.00 on ‘Both Teams To Score – Yes’ @ 1.909 = Potential profit of £90.90

smarkets white

Lay £99.95 on ‘Both Teams Score – Yes’ @ 1.93 = Potential liability of £92.95

Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

Both teams score and less than 4 goals + £90.90 – £92.95 = £2.05 loss
Both teams score and 4 or more goals + £90.90 – £92.95 + £16.00 (extract 80% from £20.00 bonus) = £13.95 profit
Someone keeps a clean sheet – £100.00 + £97.95 (£99.95 minus 2% commission) = £2.05 loss

So, if both teams score and 4 or more goals are scored, we’ll make a nice profit of £13.95. Any other outcome and we’ll lose £2.05. Risking £2.05 to make a profit of £13.95, gives us effective odds of 7.80. Given that the odds of 4 or more goals being scored are around 4.00, this is a profitable offer in the long run even though we need both teams to score.

If you’re unsure how to extract 80% cash from any free bet, please see my Free Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.

* I actually placed my £100.00 qualifying bet on Leicester City in the ‘Match Betting’ market at back odds of 1.95 and lay odds of 1.98. Leicester City won the match 3-1 after extra-time (1-1 after 90 minutes), meaning I made a loss of £2.50 on this William Hill offer. *

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Matt Kirman - Matched Betting Blogger

Matt KirmanMatched Betting Blogger

Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £70,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.