This is a fantastic Money-Back Special offer from Youwin. Place a Match Odds bet on Manchester United v Liverpool and Youwin will refund all losing bets in cash if Luis Suarez scores the first goal up to a maximum of £100.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £46.19! And here’s how…
We will need to select a match odds result and hope it doesn’t come in as only losing bets are refunded in the event of Suarez scoring the first goal. It therefore makes sense to back Manchester United as this is definitely the most unlikely outcome if Suarez does score the first goal of the match.
Step 1:
Place £100.00 on Manchester United @ 2.50 = Potential profit of £150.00
Lay £98.81 on Manchester United @ 2.58 = Potential liability of £156.12
Step 2:
Let’s have a look at our current potential profit/loss for the following outcomes…
| Man Utd win + Suarez scores first | +£150.00 – £156.12 = £6.12 loss |
| Man Utd win + Suarez doesn’t score first | +£150.00 – £156.12 = £6.12 loss |
| Man Utd don’t win + Suarez scores first | -£100.00 + £93.87 + £100.00 refund = £93.87 profit |
| Man Utd don’t win + Suarez doesn’t score first | -£100.00 + £93.87 = £6.13 loss |
So as things stand we will make £93.87 profit if Manchester United don’t win and Luis Suarez scores the first goal. Unfortunately, we also stand to lose approximately £6.13 on any other outcome and so we need to insure ourselves against this by laying Luis Suarez to score first at Betfair.
Step 3:
As £6.13 is the maximum we stand to lose, we need to work out our lay stake by taking commission into consideration. £6.13 / 0.95 = £6.45.
Lay £6.45 on Suarez First Goalscorer @ 7.20 = Potential liability of £39.99.
Let’s have a look at our resulting potential profit/loss for the following outcomes…
| Man Utd win + Suarez scores first | -£6.12 – £39.99 = £46.11 loss |
| Man Utd win + Suarez doesn’t score first | -£6.12 + £6.13 = £0.01 profit |
| Man Utd don’t win + Suarez scores first | +£93.87 – £39.99 = £53.88 profit |
| Man Utd don’t win + Suarez doesn’t score first | -£6.13 + £6.13 = £0.00 |
So now as things stand we will make £53.88 profit if Manchester United don’t win and Luis Suarez scores the first goal. As you can see, if Luiz Suarez doesn’t score the first goal, then we can rest assured that we’ll either break even or make a measly profit of £0.01.
The outcome that isn’t looking great at the minute is Luis Suarez scoring first and Manchester United coming back to win. We can insure ourselves against this though by following the game in-play. If Luis Suarez scores the first goal of the match we will be looking at the following outcomes…
| Man Utd win | £46.11 loss |
| Man Utd don’t win | £53.88 profit |
In order to insure ourselves against incurring the hefty loss, we must now back Manchester United in-play. If Suarez scores the first goal, I would expect the odds on a Manchester United win to be around 7.00.
Place £7.69 on Manchester United @ 7.00 = Potential profit of £46.14
So our final profit/loss will be as follows…
| Man Utd win | -£46.11 + £46.14 = £0.03 profit |
| Man Utd don’t win | +£53.88 – £7.69 = £46.19 profit |
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.