Kick-off time (GMT): 15/03/2016 : 13:30
It’s Day 1 of the Cheltenham Festival 2016 on Tuesday and 188BET are running a belter of an offer to get us off to a flyer! Simply place bets on Day 1 of the Cheltenham Festival and 188BET will refund 25% of our net losses as a free bet, up to a maximum of £188.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a guaranteed profit of £60.30 and here’s how…
This offer is available to new and existing customers based in the UK and Ireland.
Only bets placed on Cheltenham Day 1 races from 00:01 on Tuesday 15th March 2016 and settled by 18:00 on Tuesday 15th March 2016 will be eligible.
See here for full terms: http://188betpromo.com/UK/CHELT2016/tnc.html
In order to claim the maximum free bet refund of £188.00, we will need to ‘lose’ £752.00.
The refund will be credited as a stake returned free bet that must be wagered once on horse racing at minimum odds of 1.50 (1/2) or greater, before any subsequent winnings can be withdrawn. By using straightforward matched betting, we should be able to extract 90% of our free bet refund as cash, so in this case £169.20.
We can place our qualifying bet on any horse in any of the 7 races. It will depend on your available bankroll as to what odds you go for. If we stake £752.00 at high odds, we will need a silly amount of cash in our Smarkets account for the lay side. It’s therefore a better idea to go for a horse with shorter odds in order to minimise the amount of cash we need in our Smarkets account.
At the time of writing, the back odds at 188BET aren’t yet available and the lay odds at Smarkets are pretty poor, so I’ll use fictional odds (Min in the 1.30 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle) in the following example and I’ll update the bottom of this post with my actual selection after Day 1 has finished.
I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity in the run up to races, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges.
This is effectively a risk-free offer, so we can use the ‘Risk-Free Bet’ setting on my matched betting calculator. We can enter £169.20 as our ‘Cashback’ figure as this is the amount we expect to extract from our free bet refund should our qualifying bet lose…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £656.23…
Place £752.00 on Min @ 3.00 = Potential profit of £1,504.00
Lay £656.23 on Min @ 3.20 = Potential liability of £1,443.70
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
|Min wins||+ £1504.00 – £1443.70 = £60.30 profit|
|Min doesn't win||- £752.00 + £643.10 + £169.20 (extract 90% from £188.00 refund) =£60.30 profit|
So, regardless of the result of the race, we will make a guaranteed profit of £60.30 on this 188BET offer!
If our qualifying bet loses, the refunded stake will be credited by 07.00 on Wednesday 16th March 2016.
* I actually placed my qualifying bet on Min at back odds of 3.00 and lay odds of 3.20, meaning I made a profit of £60.30 on this 188BET offer. *