There’s a big day of racing at Ascot on Saturday and you don’t want to miss this Coral offer! If Order Of St George wins the 1.25 at Ascot, Coral will refund the losing part of win and each-way singles, as a free bet up to £10.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a guaranteed profit of £3.64 and here’s how…
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unsure about how to place qualifying bets, check out my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.
Qualifying bets must be placed between 18:00 on Friday 14th October 2016 and 13:25 on Saturday 15th October 2016, to be eligible.
We need to place our qualifying bet on any horse other than Order Of St George.
At the time of writing, the odds are pretty poor, so I’ll use fictional odds in the following example and I’ll update the post with my actual selection after the race.
I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity in the run up to races, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges.
We can calculate our lay stakes using my matched betting calculator…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £9.68…
Place £10.00 on Simple Verse @ 5.50 = Potential profit of £45.00
Lay £9.68 on Simple Verse @ 5.70 = Potential liability of £45.51
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
| Simple Verse wins | + £45.00 – £45.51 = £0.51 loss |
| Order Of St George wins | – £10.00 + £9.49 + £8.00 (extract 80% from £10.00 free bet) = £7.49 profit |
| Another horse wins | – £10.00 + £9.49 = £0.51 loss |
So, as things stand, if Order Of St George wins, we will make a nice profit of £7.49. Any other outcome and we’ll lose £0.51.
By placing an extra lay bet on Order Of St George, we can actually guarantee ourselves a profit on any outcome. In order to work out our lay stake, we just need to divide £8.00 (the amount we can expect to extract from our £10.00 free bet refund) by 1.89 (lay odds – 0.02 (to account for the 2% commission)) which gives us £4.23…
Lay £4.23 on Order Of St George @ 1.91 = Potential liability of £3.85
Let’s have a look at our overall profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
| Simple Verse wins | – £0.51 + £4.15 = £3.64 profit |
| Order Of St George wins | + £7.49 – £3.85 = £3.64 profit |
| Another horse wins | – £0.51 + £4.15 = £3.64 profit |
So, regardless of who wins the race, we’ll make a guaranteed profit of £3.64 on this Coral offer.
If our selection loses, our free bet will be credited 24 hours of our qualifying bet being settled and will expire at 23:59 on Sunday 16th October 2016.
If you’re unsure how to extract 80% of our £10.00 free bet, check out my Free Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.
* I actually placed my qualifying bet on Quest For More at back odds of 13.00 and lay odds of 13.50. I placed my extra lay bet on Order Of St George at odds of 1.88, meaning I made a guaranteed profit of £3.67 on this Coral offer. *
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.