Ladbrokes Offer – 14:35 Goodwood (Friday)

Glorious Goodwood continues today and you don’t want to miss this Ladbrokes offer! If our horse finishes 2nd or 3rd to the starting price (SP) favourite in the 14:35 at Goodwood, Ladbrokes will refund our stake as a free bet, up to a maximum of £25.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £18.65 and here’s how…

Qualifying Bet:

If you’re unsure about how to place qualifying bets, check out my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.

Ladbrokes run this offer on selected Channel 4 races. If our horse finishes 2nd or 3rd to the starting price (SP) favourite, they will refund our stake as a free bet, up to a maximum of £25.00. As Thikriyaat is a short favourite (9/4) to win the 14:35 at Goodwood today, this offer is well worth a go.

It’s worth bearing in mind that we need a minimum of 8 runners in the race to be eligible. At the time of writing, there are 11 runners due to run, but if this drops to 5, 6 or 7 runners, Ladbrokes will only refund 2nd place (if the SP favourite wins).

It’s entirely up to you which horse you go for, but it would make sense to select a horse with fairly short odds in the hope of a 2nd or 3rd placed finish. At the time of writing, the lay odds are pretty poor, so I’ll use fictional odds in the following example and I’ll update the bottom of this post with my actual selection after the race.

I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity in the run up to races, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges.

We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…

Back Bet (Bookie)

%

Lay Bet (Betting Exchange)

%

Min £
Max £
Lay stake required: £
Bookie
Exchange
Cashback
Total
If back (bookie) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
If lay (exchange) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
Total profit: £

Optimal Underlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

Optimal Overlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £24.13…

ladbrokes logo

Place £25.00 on Emotionless @ 5.00 = Potential profit of £100.00

smarkets white

Lay £24.13 on Emotionless @ 5.20 = Potential liability of £101.35

Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

Emotionless wins + £100.00 – £101.35 = £1.35 loss
Emotionless finishes 2nd or 3rd to SP favourite – £25.00 + £23.65 + £20.00 (extract 80% from our £25.00 free bet) = £18.65 profit
Emotionless finishes 2nd or 3rd to another horse – £25.00 + £23.65 = £1.35 loss
Emotionless finishes outside top 3 – £25.00 + £23.65 = £1.35 loss

So, we will make a nice profit of £18.65 if Emotionless finishes 2nd or 3rd to the SP favourite and we stand to lose £1.35 on any other outcome. Risking £1.35 to make £18.65 profit, gives us effective odds of 14.81, which I’m sure you’ll agree, makes this a profitable offer in the long run.

If you’re unsure how to extract 80% of a £25.00 free bet, check out my Free Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.

* I actually placed my qualifying bet on Forge at back odds of 6.00 and lay odds of 6.20. Forge finished 2nd to SP favourite, Thikriyaat, meaning I made a profit of £18.79 on this Ladbrokes offer. *

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Matt Kirman - Matched Betting Blogger

Matt KirmanMatched Betting Blogger

Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £70,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.