There’s a big day of racing at Newmarket today and you don’t want to miss this Ladbrokes offer! If our horse finishes 2nd to the starting price (SP) favourite in the 15:20 at Newmarket, Ladbrokes will refund our stake as a free bet, up to a maximum of £25.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £19.24 and here’s how…
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unsure about how to place qualifying bets, check out my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.
Ladbrokes run this offer on selected Channel 4 races. If our horse finishes 2nd to the starting price (SP) favourite, they will refund our stake as a free bet, up to a maximum of £25.00. As Somebody To Love is a fairly short favourite (2/1) to win the 15:20 at Newmarket today, this offer is well worth a go.
It’s worth bearing in mind that we need a minimum of 5 runners in the race to be eligible. At the time of writing, there are 7 runners due to run, but if this drops to 4 runners or less, the offer will no longer be eligible.
It’s entirely up to you which horse you go for, but it would make sense to select a horse with fairly short odds in the hope of a 2nd placed finish. Having looked at the odds available, I’ve opted to place my qualifying bet on Simmie.
I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity in the run up to races, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges.
We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £24.74…
Place £25.00 on Simmie @ 7.50 = Potential profit of £162.50
Lay £24.74 on Simmie @ 7.60 = Potential liability of £163.26
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
| Simmie wins | + £162.50 – £163.26 = £0.76 loss |
| Simmie finishes 2nd SP favourite | – £25.00 + £24.24 + £20.00 (extract 80% from our £25.00 free bet) = £19.24 profit |
| Simmie finishes 2nd to another horse | – £25.00 + £24.24 = £0.76 loss |
| Simmie finishes outside top 2 | – £25.00 + £24.24 = £0.76 loss |
So, we will make a nice profit of £19.24 if Simmie finishes 2nd to the SP favourite and we stand to lose £0.76 on any other outcome. Risking £0.76 to make £19.24 profit gives us effective odds of 26.32, which I’m sure you’ll agree, makes this a profitable offer in the long run.
If you’re unsure how to extract 80% of a £25.00 free bet, check out my Free Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.
* Simmie finished outside the top 2 and the SP favourite failed to win the race, meaning I made a loss of £0.76 on this Ladbrokes offer. *
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £70,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.