Ladbrokes Offer – 15:40 Newmarket

It’s the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket today and you don’t want to miss this Ladbrokes offer! If our horse finishes 2nd or 3rd to Minding in the 15:40 at Newmarket, Ladbrokes will refund our stake as a free bet, up to a maximum of £25.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £18.38 and here’s how…

Qualifying Bet:

If you’re unsure about how to place qualifying bets, check out my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.

Ladbrokes run this offer each week on selected Channel 4 races. If our horse finishes 2nd or 3rd to the starting price (SP) favourite, they will refund our stake as a free bet, up to a maximum of £25.00. As Minding is such a strong favourite (5/4) to win the 15:40 at Newmarket today, this offer is well worth a go.

It’s entirely up to you which horse you go for, but it would make sense to select a horse with fairly short odds in the hope of a 2nd or 3rd placed finish. Having looked at the odds available, I’ve opted to place my qualifying bet on Nathra.

I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity in the run up to races, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges.

We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…

Back Bet (Bookie)

%

Lay Bet (Betting Exchange)

%

Min £
Max £
Lay stake required: £
Bookie
Exchange
Cashback
Total
If back (bookie) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
If lay (exchange) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
Total profit: £

Optimal Underlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

Optimal Overlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £23.85…

ladbrokes logo

Place £25.00 on Nathra @ 10.00 = Potential profit of £225.00

smarkets white

Lay £23.85 on Nathra @ 10.50 = Potential liability of £226.62

Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

Nathra wins + £225.00 – £226.62 = £1.62 loss
Nathra finishes 2nd or 3rd to Minding – £25.00 + £23.38 + £20.00 (extract 80% from our £25.00 free bet) = £18.38 profit
Nathra finishes 2nd or 3rd to another horse – £25.00 + £23.38 = £1.62 loss
Nathra finishes outside top 3 – £25.00 + £23.38 = £1.62 loss

So, we will make a nice profit of £18.38 if Nathra finishes 2nd or 3rd to Minding (5/4 favourite) and we stand to lose £1.62 on any other outcome. Risking £1.62 to make £18.38 profit gives us effective odds of 12.35, which I’m sure you’ll agree, makes this a profitable offer in the long run.

If you’re unsure how to extract 80% of a £25.00 free bet, check out my Free Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.

NOTE: There are 6 Channel 4 races today that are eligible for this Ladbrokes offer, so it’s well worth keeping an eye on the odds. If there’s a strong favourite running and you can get tight back and lay odds on another horse, it’s well worth a go.

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Matt Kirman - Matched Betting Blogger

Matt KirmanMatched Betting Blogger

Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £70,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.