It’s the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket today and you don’t want to miss this Ladbrokes offer! If our horse finishes 2nd or 3rd to Air Force Blue in the 15:45 at Newmarket, Ladbrokes will refund our stake as a free bet, up to a maximum of £25.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £18.24 and here’s how…
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unsure about how to place qualifying bets, check out my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.
Ladbrokes run this offer every Saturday on selected Channel 4 races. If our horse finishes 2nd or 3rd to the starting price (SP) favourite, they will refund our stake as a free bet, up to a maximum of £25.00. As Air Force Blue is such a strong favourite (8/11) to win the 15:45 at Newmarket today, this offer is well worth a go.
It’s entirely up to you which horse you go for, but it would make sense to select a horse with fairly short odds in the hope of a 2nd or 3rd placed finish. At the time of writing, the lay odds are pretty poor so I’ll use fictional odds in the following example and I’ll update the bottom of this post with my actual selection after the race.
I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity in the run up to races, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges.
We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £23.71…
Place £25.00 on Stormy Antarctic @ 7.00 = Potential profit of £150.00
Lay £23.71 on Stormy Antarctic @ 7.40 = Potential liability of £151.76
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
Stormy Antarctic wins | + £150.00 – £151.76 = £1.76 loss |
Stormy Antarctic finishes 2nd or 3rd to Air Force Blue | – £25.00 + £23.24 + £20.00 (extract 80% from our £25.00 free bet) = £18.24 profit |
Stormy Antarctic finishes 2nd or 3rd to another horse | – £25.00 + £23.24 = £1.76 loss |
Stormy Antarctic finishes outside top 3 | – £25.00 + £23.24 = £1.76 loss |
So, we will make a nice profit of £18.24 if Stormy Antarctic finishes 2nd or 3rd to Air Force Blue (8/11 favourite) and we stand to lose £1.76 on any other outcome. Risking £1.76 to make £18.24 profit gives us effective odds of 11.36, which I’m sure you’ll agree, makes this a profitable offer in the long run.
If you’re unsure how to extract 80% of a £25.00 free bet, check out my Free Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.
* I actually placed my qualifying bet on Stormy Antarctic at back odds of 8.00 and lay odds of 9.00. Air Force Blue failed to win and Stormy Antarctic finished outside the top 3, meaning I made a loss of £3.17 on this Ladbrokes offer. *
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £70,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.