There’s a big day of racing at Ascot today and you don’t want to miss this Ladbrokes offer! If Shalaa (9/4 favourite) wins the 3.05 at Ascot, Ladbrokes will refund all losing mobile bets as a free bet up to £25.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a guaranteed profit of £4.82 and here’s how…
Qualifying Bet:
This offer is only available to new and existing MOBILE customers.
If you’re unsure about how to place qualifying bets, check out my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.
Qualifying bets must be placed between 08:00 and 15:05 today (Saturday 1st October 2016), to be eligible.
We need to place our qualifying bet on any horse other than Shalaa (9/4 favourite at the time of writing).
Having looked at the odds available, I’ve opted to place my qualifying bet on Strath Burn.
I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity in the run up to races, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges.
We can calculate our lay stakes using my matched betting calculator…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £24.04…
Place £25.00 on Strath Burn @ 12.00 = Potential profit of £275.00
Lay £24.04 on Strath Burn @ 12.50 = Potential liability of £276.44
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
| Strath Burn wins | + £275.00 – £276.44 = £1.44 loss |
| Shalaa wins | – £25.00 + £23.56 + £20.00 (extract 80% from our £25.00 free bet) = £18.56 profit |
| Another horse wins | – £25.00 + £23.56 = £1.44 loss |
So, as things stand, if Shalaa wins, we will make a nice profit of £18.56. Any other outcome and we’ll lose £1.44.
By placing an extra lay bet on Shalaa, we can actually guarantee ourselves a profit on any outcome. In order to work out our lay stake, we just need to divide £20.00 (the amount we can expect to extract from our £25.00 free bet refund) by 3.13 (lay odds – 0.02 (to account for the 2% commission)) which gives us £6.39…
Lay £6.39 on Shalaa @ 3.15 = Potential liability of £13.74
Let’s have a look at our overall profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
| Strath Burn wins | – £1.44 + £6.26 = £4.82 profit |
| Shalaa wins | + £18.56 – £13.74 = £4.82 profit |
| Another horse wins | – £1.44 + £6.26 = £4.82 profit |
So, regardless of who wins the race, we’ll make a guaranteed profit of £4.82 on this Ladbrokes offer.
If our selection loses, our free bet will be credited within 24 hours of the race finishing and will be valid for 7 days.
If you’re unsure how to extract 80% of our £25.00 free bet, check out my Free Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £70,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.