The King George VI Chase takes place at Kempton on Boxing Day and you don’t want to miss this Ladbrokes offer. If the SP favourite wins the 3.10 at Kempton on Saturday, Ladbrokes will refund all losing outright bets on that race as a free bet up to £25.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £18.39 and here’s how…
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unsure about how to place qualifying bets, check out my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.
It’s entirely up to which horse you place your qualifying bet on as long as it’s not the SP (starting price) favourite at the start of the race. It therefore makes sense that we go for a horse with long odds. This ensures that if the favourite wins, we will automatically be eligible for a free bet refund as our qualifying bet will have lost.
At the time of writing, the lay odds aren’t great so I’ll use fictional odds in the following example and I’ll update the bottom of this post with my actual selection after the race.
I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity in the run up to races, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges.
We can calculate our lay stakes using my matched betting calculator…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £23.87…
Place £25.00 on Smad Place @ 8.00 = Potential profit of £175.00
Lay £23.87 on Smad Place @ 8.40 = Potential liability of £176.61
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
| Smad Place wins | +£175.00 – £176.61 = £1.61 loss |
| The SP favourite wins | -£25.00 + £23.39 + £20.00 (extract 80% from our £25.00 free bet) = £18.39 profit |
| Neither wins | -£25.00 + £23.39 = £1.61 loss |
So we will make a nice profit of £18.39 if the favourite wins and we stand to lose £1.61 on any other outcome. A £1.61 risk to make £18.39 profit gives us effective odds of 12.42, so the fact that the current favourite, Don Cossack, is priced at 3.25 to win, makes this a hugely profitable offer in the long run.
If you’re unsure how to extract 80% of our £25.00 free bet, check out my Free Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.
* I actually placed my qualifying bet on Cue Card at back odds of 5.50 and lay odds of 5.60. Cue Card won the race, meaning I made a loss of £0.85 on this offer. *
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.