There’s a big day of racing at Chantilly today and you don’t want to miss this Ladbrokes offer! If Postponed (7/4 favourite) wins the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (3.05) at Chantilly, Ladbrokes will refund all losing mobile bets as a free bet up to £25.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a guaranteed profit of £4.40 and here’s how…
Qualifying Bet:
This offer is only available to new and existing MOBILE, TABLET and SHOP customers on the Grid.
If you’re unsure about how to place qualifying bets, check out my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.
Qualifying bets must be placed between 08:00 on Wednesday 28th September 2016 and 15:05 today (Sunday 2nd October 2016), to be eligible.
We need to place our qualifying bet on any horse other than Postponed (7/4 favourite at the time of writing).
At the time of writing, the odds are pretty poor, so I’ll use fictional odds in the following example and I’ll update the post with my actual selection after the race.
I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity in the run up to races, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges.
We can calculate our lay stakes using my matched betting calculator…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £23.71…
Place £25.00 on Makahiki @ 7.00 = Potential profit of £150.00
Lay £23.71 on Makahiki @ 7.40 = Potential liability of £151.76
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
| Makahiki wins | + £150.00 – £151.76 = £1.76 loss |
| Postponed wins | – £25.00 + £23.24 + £20.00 (extract 80% from our £25.00 free bet) = £18.24 profit |
| Another horse wins | – £25.00 + £23.24 = £1.76 loss |
So, as things stand, if Postponed wins, we will make a nice profit of £18.24. Any other outcome and we’ll lose £1.76.
By placing an extra lay bet on Postponed, we can actually guarantee ourselves a profit on any outcome. In order to work out our lay stake, we just need to divide £20.00 (the amount we can expect to extract from our £25.00 free bet refund) by 3.18 (lay odds – 0.02 (to account for the 2% commission)) which gives us £6.29…
Lay £6.29 on Postponed @ 3.20 = Potential liability of £13.84
Let’s have a look at our overall profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
| Makahiki wins | – £1.76 + £6.16 = £4.40 profit |
| Postponed wins | + £18.24 – £13.84 = £4.40 profit |
| Another horse wins | – £1.76 + £6.16 = £4.40 profit |
So, regardless of who wins the race, we’ll make a guaranteed profit of £4.40 on this Ladbrokes offer.
If our selection loses, mobile and tablet customers will receive their free bets within 24 hours of the race finishing and will be valid for 7 days. For Shop Grid customers, the free bet voucher can be claimed once your bet on the race has been settled. The voucher will be available for 7 days from the moment it’s issued to you.
If you’re unsure how to extract 80% of our £25.00 free bet, check out my Free Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.
* I actually placed my qualifying bet on Makahiki at back odds of 8.00 and lay odds of 8.40. I placed my extra lay bet on Postponed at lay odds of 3.20, meaning I made a guaranteed profit of £4.55 on this Ladbrokes offer. *
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.